bayesRatings

Pirates at Cardinals

MLB · Thursday, May 21 · 12:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final PIT 6 – STL 2
← MLB / May 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT1001022006100
STL001000010280
Team box
PIT·STL
10
hits
8
2
home runs
1
2
walks
2
9
strikeouts
11
136
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon LowePIT2-4111
Ivan HerreraSTL2-4211
Marcell OzunaPIT2-4002
Henry DavisPIT1-3111
Jake MangumPIT1-4001
Pedro PagesSTL2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Braxton Ashcraft (W)PIT7.04129
Dustin May (L)STL5.16427

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +5
PIT +5
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · PIT 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 47%, STL 53% · Updated May 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.2 – 4.2 STL
Expected total
8.4
PiratesThe matchupCardinals
+112Our fair odds−112
4.2Expected runs4.2
−0.02Power rating+0.01
4.9Runs / game4.5
4.5Allowed / game4.5
8.8Hits / game8.1
1.02Home runs / game1.15
4.0Walks drawn / game3.4
25−24Season record28−20
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · STL chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+11247%−12655.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11253%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 18%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%
← PIT wins bySTL wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more37%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more27%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 21.1 IP, 2.11 ERA, 17 Kstarted
STLDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·STL
May 20 at STL
last game
May 20 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
PIT·STL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.9
runs / game
4.5
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
25−24
season record
28−20
13−13
home record
13−12
12−11
away record
15−8
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
8.1
1.02
home runs / game
1.15
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.3
0.51
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

PIT · STL · 57 days
Pittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 7−3
May 20at STLPIT 7 − 0
May 19at STLSTL 9 − 6
Apr 30at PITSTL 10 − 5
Apr 29at PITSTL 5 − 4
Apr 28at PITSTL 11 − 7
Apr 27at PITSTL 4 − 2
Aug 28, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 1
Aug 27, 2025at STLPIT 2 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at STLPIT 8 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 6

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 20at STL7 − 0W
May 19at STL6 − 9L
May 17vs PHI0 − 6L
May 16vs PHI0 − 6L
May 15vs PHI9 − 11L
May 14vs COL7 − 2W
May 13vs COL4 − 10L
May 12vs COL3 − 1W
May 10at SF6 − 7L
May 9at SF13 − 3W

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 20vs PIT0 − 7L
May 19vs PIT9 − 6W
May 17vs KC0 − 2L
May 16vs KC4 − 2W
May 15vs KC5 − 4W
May 14at ATH5 − 4W
May 13at ATH2 − 6L
May 12at ATH6 − 4W
May 10at SD2 − 3L
May 9at SD2 − 4L