bayesRatings

Pirates at Blue Jays

MLB · Saturday, May 23 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final PIT 2 – TOR 5
← MLB / May 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000001010251
TOR100003105111
Team box
PIT·TOR
5
hits
11
0
home runs
2
3
walks
1
12
strikeouts
4
126
pitches thrown
141
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
George SpringerTOR2-4111
Tyler HeinemanTOR1-3111
Marcell OzunaPIT1-4002
Jesus SanchezTOR2-3101
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-3100
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Paul Skenes (L)PIT5.09412
Patrick Corbin (W)TOR6.05107
Jeff Hoffman (S)TOR1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +4
PIT +4
123456789
largest lead: TOR 4 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 46%, TOR 54% · Updated May 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.5 – 4.1 PIT
Expected total
8.6
PiratesThe matchupBlue Jays
+119Our fair odds−119
4.1Expected runs4.5
−0.02Power rating+0.08
4.9Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.2
8.8Hits / game8.1
1.02Home runs / game0.88
3.9Walks drawn / game3.0
26−25Season record24−27
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · TOR chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+11946%−15460.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−11954%+12444.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.4our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more39%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more29%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 2.14 ERA, 24 Kstarted
TORPatrick Corbin SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·TOR
May 22 at TOR
last game
May 22 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
PIT·TOR
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.9
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.2
26−25
season record
24−27
13−13
home record
14−11
13−12
away record
10−16
L1
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
8.1
1.02
home runs / game
0.88
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.0
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.55
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

PIT · TOR · 59 days
Pittsburgh PiratesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 7−3
May 22at TORTOR 6 − 2
Aug 20, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at PITTOR 7 − 3
Aug 18, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 2
Jun 2, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 4
Jun 1, 2024at TORPIT 8 − 1
May 31, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 3
May 7, 2023at PITTOR 10 − 1
May 6, 2023at PITTOR 8 − 2
May 5, 2023at PITTOR 4 − 0

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 22at TOR2 − 6L
May 21at STL6 − 2W
May 20at STL7 − 0W
May 19at STL6 − 9L
May 17vs PHI0 − 6L
May 16vs PHI0 − 6L
May 15vs PHI9 − 11L
May 14vs COL7 − 2W
May 13vs COL4 − 10L
May 12vs COL3 − 1W

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
May 22vs PIT6 − 2W
May 21at NYY2 − 0W
May 20at NYY2 − 1W
May 19at NYY4 − 5L
May 18at NYY6 − 7L
May 17at DET4 − 1W
May 16at DET2 − 1W
May 15at DET2 − 3L
May 13vs TB5 − 3W
May 12vs TB6 − 7L