bayesRatings

Cubs at Pirates

MLB · Tuesday, May 26 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final CHC 1 – PIT 12
← MLB / May 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC010000000181
PIT5000311212153
Team box
CHC·PIT
8
hits
15
0
home runs
2
2
walks
2
9
strikeouts
8
146
pitches thrown
138
1
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Spencer HorwitzPIT2-3112
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT1-4113
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-4202
Oneil CruzPIT3-3101
Nick GonzalesPIT2-5201
Carson KellyCHC2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jordan Wicks (L)CHC4.19815
Braxton Ashcraft (W)PIT6.17115

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +11
CHC +11
123456789
largest lead: PIT 11 · CHC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 52%, PIT 48% · Updated May 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHC 4.4 – 4.0 PIT
Expected total
8.3
CubsThe matchupPirates
−109Our fair odds+109
4.4Expected runs4.0
+0.13Power rating−0.02
4.7Runs / game4.8
4.4Allowed / game4.4
7.9Hits / game8.6
1.13Home runs / game1.04
4.6Walks drawn / game3.8
29−25Season record28−26
1−9Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · PIT chance
Our model fair52.1%47.9%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−10952%+11446.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10948%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago Cubs−0.4our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byPIT wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more39%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more28%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCJordan Wicks RP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 9.69 ERA, 10 Kstarted
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 2.61 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·PIT
May 25 at PIT
last game
May 25 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
CHC·PIT
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.7
runs / game
4.8
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
29−25
season record
28−26
18−11
home record
14−13
11−14
away record
14−13
L9
streak
W2
1−9
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.6
1.13
home runs / game
1.04
4.6
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.50
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

CHC · PIT · 62 days
Chicago CubsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 4−6
May 25at PITPIT 2 − 1
Apr 12at CHCCHC 7 − 6
Apr 11at CHCPIT 4 − 3
Apr 10at CHCPIT 2 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at PITCHC 8 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at PITCHC 4 − 1
Sep 15, 2025at PITCHC 4 − 0
Aug 17, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Aug 16, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1
Aug 15, 2025at CHCPIT 3 − 2

CHC · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
May 25at PIT1 − 2L
May 24vs HOU5 − 8L
May 23vs HOU0 − 3L
May 22vs HOU2 − 4L
May 20vs MIL0 − 5L
May 19vs MIL2 − 5L
May 18vs MIL3 − 9L
May 17at CHW8 − 9L
May 16at CHW3 − 8L
May 15at CHW10 − 5W

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 25vs CHC2 − 1W
May 24at TOR4 − 1W
May 23at TOR2 − 5L
May 22at TOR2 − 6L
May 21at STL6 − 2W
May 20at STL7 − 0W
May 19at STL6 − 9L
May 17vs PHI0 − 6L
May 16vs PHI0 − 6L
May 15vs PHI9 − 11L