bayesRatings

Astros at Cubs

MLB · Friday, May 22 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final HOU 4 – CHC 2
← MLB / May 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU001210000492
CHC000002000240
Team box
HOU·CHC
9
hits
4
1
home runs
1
4
walks
5
10
strikeouts
6
145
pitches thrown
167
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Christian VazquezHOU2-4112
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1-2112
Brice MatthewsHOU1-2001
Alex BregmanCHC1-3000
Ian HappCHC1-5000
Miguel AmayaCHC1-1100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer Arrighetti (W)HOU5.02045
Bryan King (S)HOU1.10000
Jameson Taillon (L)CHC4.28415

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +4
HOU +4
123456789
largest lead: CHC 0 · HOU 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 41%, CHC 59% · Updated May 22

Expected margin
CHC by 1.0
Expected score
CHC 4.9 – 3.9 HOU
Expected total
8.8
AstrosThe matchupCubs
+145Our fair odds−145
3.9Expected runs4.9
−0.11Power rating+0.19
4.3Runs / game4.9
5.4Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game8.2
1.18Home runs / game1.16
3.4Walks drawn / game4.6
20−31Season record29−21
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · CHC chance
Our model fair40.9%59.1%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+14541%+11945.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−14559%−14859.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.0
HOUHouston Astros+1our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.0 expected
Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more44%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more34%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUSpencer Arrighetti SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CHCJameson Taillon SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.19 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·CHC
May 20 at MIN
last game
May 20 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
HOU·CHC
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
4.3
runs / game
4.9
5.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
20−31
season record
29−21
12−14
home record
18−8
8−17
away record
11−13
L1
streak
L5
4−6
last 10
2−8
8.3
hits / game
8.2
1.18
home runs / game
1.16
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.6
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.35
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

HOU · CHC · 58 days
Houston AstrosChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHC 4−5
Jun 29, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Jun 28, 2025at HOUCHC 12 − 3
Jun 27, 2025at HOUHOU 7 − 4
Apr 25, 2024at CHCCHC 3 − 1
Apr 24, 2024at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Apr 23, 2024at CHCCHC 7 − 2
May 17, 2023at HOUHOU 7 − 6
May 16, 2023at HOUHOU 7 − 3
May 15, 2023at HOUHOU 6 − 4

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 20at MIN1 − 4L
May 19at MIN2 − 1W
May 18at MIN3 − 6L
May 17vs TEX0 − 8L
May 16vs TEX4 − 1W
May 15vs TEX2 − 0W
May 14vs SEA3 − 8L
May 13vs SEA4 − 3W
May 12vs SEA2 − 10L
May 11vs SEA1 − 3L

CHC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
May 20vs MIL0 − 5L
May 19vs MIL2 − 5L
May 18vs MIL3 − 9L
May 17at CHW8 − 9L
May 16at CHW3 − 8L
May 15at CHW10 − 5W
May 14at ATL2 − 0W
May 13at ATL1 − 4L
May 12at ATL2 − 5L
May 10at TEX0 − 3L