bayesRatings

Brewers at Cubs

MLB · Monday, May 18 · 6:40 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final MIL 9 – CHC 3
← MLB / May 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL0104310009130
CHC000030000370
Team box
MIL·CHC
13
hits
7
2
home runs
1
4
walks
3
4
strikeouts
10
120
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL2-4214
Christian YelichMIL2-4212
Dansby SwansonCHC1-4112
Michael BuschCHC2-2001
Sal FrelickMIL1-4102
Jackson ChourioMIL2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon SproatMIL4.23335
Shane Drohan (W)MIL4.14005
Shota Imanaga (L)CHC4.19832

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +8
MIL +8
123456789
largest lead: CHC 0 · MIL 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 49%, CHC 51% · Updated May 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIL 4.4 – 4.2 CHC
Expected total
8.6
BrewersThe matchupCubs
+103Our fair odds−103
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.29Power rating+0.23
5.0Runs / game5.1
3.6Allowed / game4.2
8.2Hits / game8.4
0.68Home runs / game1.21
4.4Walks drawn / game4.7
26−18Season record29−18
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CHC chance
Our model fair49.4%50.6%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers+10349%+13442.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−10351%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.2our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 17%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byCHC wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more38%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more28%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 4.61 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CHC
May 17 at MIN
last game
May 17 at CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
MIL·CHC
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
5.0
runs / game
5.1
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.2
26−18
season record
29−18
15−9
home record
18−5
11−9
away record
11−13
L1
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.4
0.68
home runs / game
1.21
4.4
walks drawn / game
4.7
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.45
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

MIL · CHC · 54 days
Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
Oct 11, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 1post
Oct 9, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 0post
Oct 8, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3post
Oct 6, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 3post
Oct 4, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 3post
Aug 21, 2025at CHCMIL 4 − 1
Aug 20, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 4
Aug 18, 2025at CHCMIL 7 − 0

MIL · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
May 17at MIN4 − 5L
May 16at MIN2 − 1W
May 15at MIN3 − 2W
May 14vs SD7 − 1W
May 13vs SD1 − 3L
May 12vs SD6 − 4W
May 10vs NYY4 − 3W
May 9vs NYY4 − 3W
May 8vs NYY6 − 0W
May 6at STL6 − 2W

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 17at CHW8 − 9L
May 16at CHW3 − 8L
May 15at CHW10 − 5W
May 14at ATL2 − 0W
May 13at ATL1 − 4L
May 12at ATL2 − 5L
May 10at TEX0 − 3L
May 9at TEX0 − 6L
May 8at TEX7 − 1W
May 7vs CIN8 − 3W