bayesRatings

Cubs at White Sox

MLB · Friday, May 15 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final CHC 10 – CHW 5
← MLB / May 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC10012024010140
CHW010021001580
Team box
CHC·CHW
14
hits
8
0
home runs
3
6
walks
4
9
strikeouts
5
163
pitches thrown
192
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carson KellyCHC3-5004
Miguel VargasCHW2-4111
Colson MontgomeryCHW2-4111
Jarred KelenicCHW1-4111
Ian HappCHC2-4101
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Edward CabreraCHC4.23332
Trent Thornton (W)CHC2.00002
Sean BurkeCHW4.18415
Bryan Hudson (L)CHW1.04200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +6
CHC +6
123456789
largest lead: CHW 0 · CHC 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 58%, CHW 42% · Updated May 15

Expected margin
CHC by 1.1
Expected score
CHC 5.0 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
8.8
CubsThe matchupWhite Sox
−136Our fair odds+136
5.0Expected runs3.9
+0.24Power rating−0.16
5.0Runs / game4.4
4.0Allowed / game4.6
8.2Hits / game7.7
1.20Home runs / game1.30
4.6Walks drawn / game3.9
28−16Season record22−21
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · CHW chance
Our model fair57.6%42.4%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−13658%−12655.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+13642%+10548.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.1
CHCChicago Cubs−1.1our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.1 expected
Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 12%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more46%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more35%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 5.94 ERA, 21 Kstarted
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·CHW
May 14 at ATL
last game
May 14 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
CHC·CHW
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
5.0
runs / game
4.4
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.6
28−16
season record
22−21
18−5
home record
12−9
10−11
away record
10−12
W1
streak
W5
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
7.7
1.20
home runs / game
1.30
4.6
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.45
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

CHC · CHW · 51 days
Chicago CubsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 1−9
Jul 27, 2025at CHWCHC 5 − 4
Jul 26, 2025at CHWCHC 6 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at CHWCHW 12 − 5
May 18, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 2
May 17, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 3
May 16, 2025at CHCCHC 13 − 3
Aug 10, 2024at CHWCHC 3 − 1
Aug 9, 2024at CHWCHC 7 − 6
Jun 5, 2024at CHCCHC 7 − 6
Jun 4, 2024at CHCCHC 7 − 6

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 14at ATL2 − 0W
May 13at ATL1 − 4L
May 12at ATL2 − 5L
May 10at TEX0 − 3L
May 9at TEX0 − 6L
May 8at TEX7 − 1W
May 7vs CIN8 − 3W
May 6vs CIN7 − 6W
May 5vs CIN3 − 2W
May 4vs CIN5 − 4W

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
May 14vs KC6 − 2W
May 13vs KC6 − 5W
May 12vs KC6 − 5W
May 10vs SEA2 − 1W
May 9vs SEA6 − 1W
May 8vs SEA8 − 12L
May 6at LAA2 − 8L
May 5at LAA3 − 4L
May 4at LAA6 − 0W
May 3at SD3 − 4L