bayesRatings

Cubs at White Sox

MLB · Saturday, May 16 · 6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final CHC 3 – CHW 8
← MLB / May 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000001002380
CHW30202100881
Team box
CHC·CHW
8
hits
8
2
home runs
5
2
walks
2
9
strikeouts
6
134
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Munetaka MurakamiCHW2-3323
Miguel VargasCHW1-4113
Miguel AmayaCHC2-4111
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1-3112
Andrew BenintendiCHW2-3111
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jameson Taillon (L)CHC5.08812
Davis Martin (W)CHW6.05107

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +7
CHC +7
123456789
largest lead: CHW 7 · CHC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 59%, CHW 41% · Updated May 16

Expected margin
CHC by 1.2
Expected score
CHC 5.1 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
9.0
CubsThe matchupWhite Sox
−141Our fair odds+141
5.1Expected runs3.9
+0.26Power rating−0.18
5.1Runs / game4.4
4.0Allowed / game4.7
8.4Hits / game7.7
1.18Home runs / game1.34
4.7Walks drawn / game3.9
29−16Season record22−22
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · CHW chance
Our model fair58.6%41.4%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−14159%−10751.8%———
CHWChicago White Sox+14141%−11252.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.2
CHCChicago Cubs−1.2our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.2 expected
Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 12%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more47%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more36%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCJameson Taillon SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 0.96 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·CHW
May 15 at CHW
last game
May 15 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
CHC·CHW
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
5.1
runs / game
4.4
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.7
29−16
season record
22−22
18−5
home record
12−10
11−11
away record
10−12
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
7.7
1.18
home runs / game
1.34
4.7
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.44
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

CHC · CHW · 52 days
Chicago CubsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 1−9
May 15at CHWCHC 10 − 5
Jul 27, 2025at CHWCHC 5 − 4
Jul 26, 2025at CHWCHC 6 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at CHWCHW 12 − 5
May 18, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 2
May 17, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 3
May 16, 2025at CHCCHC 13 − 3
Aug 10, 2024at CHWCHC 3 − 1
Aug 9, 2024at CHWCHC 7 − 6
Jun 5, 2024at CHCCHC 7 − 6

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 15at CHW10 − 5W
May 14at ATL2 − 0W
May 13at ATL1 − 4L
May 12at ATL2 − 5L
May 10at TEX0 − 3L
May 9at TEX0 − 6L
May 8at TEX7 − 1W
May 7vs CIN8 − 3W
May 6vs CIN7 − 6W
May 5vs CIN3 − 2W

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 15vs CHC5 − 10L
May 14vs KC6 − 2W
May 13vs KC6 − 5W
May 12vs KC6 − 5W
May 10vs SEA2 − 1W
May 9vs SEA6 − 1W
May 8vs SEA8 − 12L
May 6at LAA2 − 8L
May 5at LAA3 − 4L
May 4at LAA6 − 0W