bayesRatings

Cubs at White Sox

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 1:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final CHC 8 – CHW 9
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
CHC3001000031891
CHW01012003029121
Team box
CHC·CHW
9
hits
12
2
home runs
2
9
walks
3
6
strikeouts
9
159
pitches thrown
205
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Edgar QueroCHW3-5213
Michael ConfortoCHC2-4113
Tristan PetersCHW1-3213
Michael BuschCHC1-4112
Alex BregmanCHC2-5202
Andrew BenintendiCHW3-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Colin ReaCHC4.26414
Ryan Rolison (L)CHC0.11100
Erick FeddeCHW3.06442
Tyler Davis (W)CHW1.00031

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
CHC +3
12345678910
largest lead: CHW 3 · CHC 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 58%, CHW 42% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
CHC by 1.1
Expected score
CHC 5.0 – 4.0 CHW
Expected total
9.0
CubsThe matchupWhite Sox
−137Our fair odds+137
5.0Expected runs4.0
+0.24Power rating−0.17
5.1Runs / game4.5
4.1Allowed / game4.7
8.4Hits / game7.7
1.20Home runs / game1.42
4.6Walks drawn / game3.8
29−17Season record23−22
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · CHW chance
Our model fair57.8%42.2%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−13758%−13156.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+13742%+10947.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.1
CHCChicago Cubs−1.1our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.1 expected
Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 12%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more46%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more35%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCColin Rea SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CHWErick Fedde SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·CHW
May 16 at CHW
last game
May 16 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
CHC·CHW
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
5.1
runs / game
4.5
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.7
29−17
season record
23−22
18−5
home record
13−10
11−12
away record
10−12
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
7.7
1.20
home runs / game
1.42
4.6
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.43
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

CHC · CHW · 53 days
Chicago CubsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 2−8
May 16at CHWCHW 8 − 3
May 15at CHWCHC 10 − 5
Jul 27, 2025at CHWCHC 5 − 4
Jul 26, 2025at CHWCHC 6 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at CHWCHW 12 − 5
May 18, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 2
May 17, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 3
May 16, 2025at CHCCHC 13 − 3
Aug 10, 2024at CHWCHC 3 − 1
Aug 9, 2024at CHWCHC 7 − 6

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 16at CHW3 − 8L
May 15at CHW10 − 5W
May 14at ATL2 − 0W
May 13at ATL1 − 4L
May 12at ATL2 − 5L
May 10at TEX0 − 3L
May 9at TEX0 − 6L
May 8at TEX7 − 1W
May 7vs CIN8 − 3W
May 6vs CIN7 − 6W

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 16vs CHC8 − 3W
May 15vs CHC5 − 10L
May 14vs KC6 − 2W
May 13vs KC6 − 5W
May 12vs KC6 − 5W
May 10vs SEA2 − 1W
May 9vs SEA6 − 1W
May 8vs SEA8 − 12L
May 6at LAA2 − 8L
May 5at LAA3 − 4L