bayesRatings

Brewers at Cubs

MLB · Wednesday, May 20 · 6:40 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final MIL 5 – CHC 0
← MLB / May 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL031000100580
CHC000000000023
Team box
MIL·CHC
8
hits
2
0
home runs
0
4
walks
2
9
strikeouts
13
121
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
David HamiltonMIL3-4201
William ContrerasMIL3-4100
Jake BauersMIL1-4001
Alex BregmanCHC1-4000
Nico HoernerCHC1-4000
Brice TurangMIL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Harrison (W)MIL7.020111
Edward Cabrera (L)CHC3.04122

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +5
MIL +5
123456789
largest lead: CHC 0 · MIL 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 51%, CHC 49% · Updated May 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIL 4.5 – 4.1 CHC
Expected total
8.7
BrewersThe matchupCubs
−104Our fair odds+104
4.5Expected runs4.1
+0.32Power rating+0.20
5.0Runs / game5.0
3.5Allowed / game4.3
8.3Hits / game8.3
0.72Home runs / game1.18
4.3Walks drawn / game4.6
28−18Season record29−20
8−2Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CHC chance
Our model fair51.0%49.0%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−10451%−10751.8%———
CHCChicago Cubs+10449%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.4our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 17%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byCHC wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more40%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more29%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.32 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CHC
May 19 at CHC
last game
May 19 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
MIL·CHC
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
5.0
runs / game
5.0
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.3
28−18
season record
29−20
15−9
home record
18−7
13−9
away record
11−13
W2
streak
L4
8−2
last 10
2−8
8.3
hits / game
8.3
0.72
home runs / game
1.18
4.3
walks drawn / game
4.6
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.48
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

MIL · CHC · 56 days
Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 4−6
May 19at CHCMIL 5 − 2
May 18at CHCMIL 9 − 3
Oct 11, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 1post
Oct 9, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 0post
Oct 8, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3post
Oct 6, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 3post
Oct 4, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 3post
Aug 21, 2025at CHCMIL 4 − 1
Aug 20, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 1

MIL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
May 19at CHC5 − 2W
May 18at CHC9 − 3W
May 17at MIN4 − 5L
May 16at MIN2 − 1W
May 15at MIN3 − 2W
May 14vs SD7 − 1W
May 13vs SD1 − 3L
May 12vs SD6 − 4W
May 10vs NYY4 − 3W
May 9vs NYY4 − 3W

CHC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
May 19vs MIL2 − 5L
May 18vs MIL3 − 9L
May 17at CHW8 − 9L
May 16at CHW3 − 8L
May 15at CHW10 − 5W
May 14at ATL2 − 0W
May 13at ATL1 − 4L
May 12at ATL2 − 5L
May 10at TEX0 − 3L
May 9at TEX0 − 6L