bayesRatings

Brewers at Cubs

MLB · Tuesday, May 19 · 6:40 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final MIL 5 – CHC 2
← MLB / May 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL1020000205112
CHC000000020261
Team box
MIL·CHC
11
hits
6
1
home runs
0
3
walks
2
7
strikeouts
13
132
pitches thrown
152
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL3-4212
Nico HoernerCHC2-3001
Jake BauersMIL2-5001
Garrett MitchellMIL1-4001
Dansby SwansonCHC1-4000
Miguel AmayaCHC1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob Misiorowski (W)MIL6.03018
Abner Uribe (S)MIL1.00001
Ben Brown (L)CHC5.07326

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +5
MIL +5
123456789
largest lead: CHC 0 · MIL 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 50%, CHC 50% · Updated May 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIL 4.5 – 4.1 CHC
Expected total
8.6
BrewersThe matchupCubs
−101Our fair odds+101
4.5Expected runs4.1
+0.31Power rating+0.21
5.0Runs / game5.1
3.6Allowed / game4.3
8.3Hits / game8.4
0.71Home runs / game1.21
4.4Walks drawn / game4.7
27−18Season record29−19
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CHC chance
Our model fair50.2%49.9%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−10150%−12154.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs+10150%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.3our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 17%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byCHC wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more39%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more28%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 29 Kstarted
CHCBen Brown RP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 0.69 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CHC
May 18 at CHC
last game
May 18 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
MIL·CHC
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
5.0
runs / game
5.1
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.3
27−18
season record
29−19
15−9
home record
18−6
12−9
away record
11−13
W1
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
8.4
0.71
home runs / game
1.21
4.4
walks drawn / game
4.7
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.44
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

MIL · CHC · 55 days
Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
May 18at CHCMIL 9 − 3
Oct 11, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 1post
Oct 9, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 0post
Oct 8, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3post
Oct 6, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 3post
Oct 4, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 3post
Aug 21, 2025at CHCMIL 4 − 1
Aug 20, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 4

MIL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
May 18at CHC9 − 3W
May 17at MIN4 − 5L
May 16at MIN2 − 1W
May 15at MIN3 − 2W
May 14vs SD7 − 1W
May 13vs SD1 − 3L
May 12vs SD6 − 4W
May 10vs NYY4 − 3W
May 9vs NYY4 − 3W
May 8vs NYY6 − 0W

CHC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
May 18vs MIL3 − 9L
May 17at CHW8 − 9L
May 16at CHW3 − 8L
May 15at CHW10 − 5W
May 14at ATL2 − 0W
May 13at ATL1 − 4L
May 12at ATL2 − 5L
May 10at TEX0 − 3L
May 9at TEX0 − 6L
May 8at TEX7 − 1W