bayesRatings

Astros at Cubs

MLB · Sunday, May 24 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final HOU 8 – CHC 5
← MLB / May 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU011050001890
CHC030000200570
Team box
HOU·CHC
9
hits
7
3
home runs
1
2
walks
7
8
strikeouts
5
167
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick AllenHOU3-3212
Michael BuschCHC2-4112
Christian WalkerHOU1-4113
Jake MeyersHOU1-4111
Jeremy PenaHOU1-4102
Carson KellyCHC2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Peter Lambert (W)HOU5.05345
Nate Pearson (S)HOU1.00010
Shota Imanaga (L)CHC6.07716

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +4
HOU +4
123456789
largest lead: CHC 2 · HOU 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 42%, CHC 58% · Updated May 24

Expected margin
CHC by 0.9
Expected score
CHC 4.8 – 3.9 HOU
Expected total
8.7
AstrosThe matchupCubs
+137Our fair odds−137
3.9Expected runs4.8
−0.09Power rating+0.16
4.2Runs / game4.8
5.2Allowed / game4.3
8.2Hits / game8.0
1.19Home runs / game1.13
3.4Walks drawn / game4.5
22−31Season record29−23
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · CHC chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshi41.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+13742%+14041.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13758%−17563.6%———
SpreadCHC by 0.9
HOUHouston Astros+0.9our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.9 expected
Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more43%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more33%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.71 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·CHC
May 23 at CHC
last game
May 23 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
HOU·CHC
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
4.2
runs / game
4.8
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.3
22−31
season record
29−23
12−14
home record
18−10
10−17
away record
11−13
W2
streak
L7
6−4
last 10
2−8
8.2
hits / game
8.0
1.19
home runs / game
1.13
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.5
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.38
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

HOU · CHC · 60 days
Houston AstrosChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 4−6
May 23at CHCHOU 3 − 0
May 22at CHCHOU 4 − 2
Jun 29, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Jun 28, 2025at HOUCHC 12 − 3
Jun 27, 2025at HOUHOU 7 − 4
Apr 25, 2024at CHCCHC 3 − 1
Apr 24, 2024at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Apr 23, 2024at CHCCHC 7 − 2
May 17, 2023at HOUHOU 7 − 6
May 16, 2023at HOUHOU 7 − 3

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 23at CHC3 − 0W
May 22at CHC4 − 2W
May 20at MIN1 − 4L
May 19at MIN2 − 1W
May 18at MIN3 − 6L
May 17vs TEX0 − 8L
May 16vs TEX4 − 1W
May 15vs TEX2 − 0W
May 14vs SEA3 − 8L
May 13vs SEA4 − 3W

CHC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
May 23vs HOU0 − 3L
May 22vs HOU2 − 4L
May 20vs MIL0 − 5L
May 19vs MIL2 − 5L
May 18vs MIL3 − 9L
May 17at CHW8 − 9L
May 16at CHW3 − 8L
May 15at CHW10 − 5W
May 14at ATL2 − 0W
May 13at ATL1 − 4L