bayesRatings

Cubs at Pirates

MLB · Thursday, May 28 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final CHC 7 – PIT 2
← MLB / May 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000102031780
PIT000002000262
Team box
CHC·PIT
8
hits
6
1
home runs
1
6
walks
5
14
strikeouts
8
162
pitches thrown
181
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ian HappCHC3-5112
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-3111
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-5102
Alex BregmanCHC1-5201
Tyler CallihanPIT1-2001
Nico HoernerCHC1-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Colin Rea (W)CHC5.14235
Paul Skenes (L)PIT5.141310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +5
CHC +5
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · CHC 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 52%, PIT 48% · Updated May 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHC 4.4 – 4.1 PIT
Expected total
8.5
CubsThe matchupPirates
−107Our fair odds+107
4.4Expected runs4.1
+0.13Power rating−0.01
4.7Runs / game4.9
4.5Allowed / game4.4
8.1Hits / game8.7
1.12Home runs / game1.07
4.6Walks drawn / game3.8
30−26Season record29−27
1−9Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · PIT chance
Our model fair51.7%48.3%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−10752%+14640.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10748%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago Cubs−0.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byPIT wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more28%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCColin Rea SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 9 Kstarted
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·PIT
May 27 at PIT
last game
May 27 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
CHC·PIT
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.7
runs / game
4.9
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
30−26
season record
29−27
18−11
home record
15−14
12−15
away record
14−13
W1
streak
L1
1−9
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.7
1.12
home runs / game
1.07
4.6
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.50
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

CHC · PIT · 64 days
Chicago CubsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 4−6
May 27at PITCHC 10 − 4
May 26at PITPIT 12 − 1
May 25at PITPIT 2 − 1
Apr 12at CHCCHC 7 − 6
Apr 11at CHCPIT 4 − 3
Apr 10at CHCPIT 2 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at PITCHC 8 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at PITCHC 4 − 1
Sep 15, 2025at PITCHC 4 − 0
Aug 17, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3

CHC · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
May 27at PIT10 − 4W
May 26at PIT1 − 12L
May 25at PIT1 − 2L
May 24vs HOU5 − 8L
May 23vs HOU0 − 3L
May 22vs HOU2 − 4L
May 20vs MIL0 − 5L
May 19vs MIL2 − 5L
May 18vs MIL3 − 9L
May 17at CHW8 − 9L

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 27vs CHC4 − 10L
May 26vs CHC12 − 1W
May 25vs CHC2 − 1W
May 24at TOR4 − 1W
May 23at TOR2 − 5L
May 22at TOR2 − 6L
May 21at STL6 − 2W
May 20at STL7 − 0W
May 19at STL6 − 9L
May 17vs PHI0 − 6L