bayesRatings

Twins at Red Sox

MLB · Saturday, May 23 · 3:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final MIN 4 – BOS 2
← MLB / May 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN2000200004121
BOS000100001251
Team box
MIN·BOS
12
hits
5
0
home runs
0
1
walks
6
9
strikeouts
11
156
pitches thrown
138
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trevor LarnachMIN4-5200
Orlando ArciaMIN2-4001
Austin MartinMIN2-5101
Willson ContrerasBOS2-3100
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-3001
Brooks LeeMIN2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Taj Bradley (W)MIN5.03127
Taylor Rogers (S)MIN0.10001
Jovani Moran (L)BOS1.03201

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · MIN 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 45%, BOS 55% · Updated May 23

Expected margin
BOS by 0.5
Expected score
BOS 4.5 – 4.0 MIN
Expected total
8.4
TwinsThe matchupRed Sox
+123Our fair odds−123
4.0Expected runs4.5
−0.10Power rating+0.04
4.7Runs / game3.7
4.6Allowed / game4.0
7.8Hits / game8.0
1.12Home runs / game0.72
3.7Walks drawn / game3.1
24−27Season record22−28
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · BOS chance
Our model fair44.8%55.2%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+12345%+10548.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−12355%−12655.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.5
MINMinnesota Twins+0.5our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.5 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more40%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 4.66 ERA, 18 Kstarted
BOSJovani Moran RP · last 2 starts: 2.0 IP, 13.50 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·BOS
May 22 at BOS
last game
May 22 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
MIN·BOS
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.7
runs / game
3.7
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.0
24−27
season record
22−28
15−14
home record
8−15
9−13
away record
14−13
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
8.0
1.12
home runs / game
0.72
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.51
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

MIN · BOS · 59 days
Minnesota TwinsBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
May 22at BOSMIN 8 − 6
Apr 15at MINBOS 9 − 5
Apr 14at MINMIN 6 − 0
Apr 13at MINMIN 13 − 6
Jul 30, 2025at MINBOS 13 − 1
Jul 29, 2025at MINBOS 8 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 4
May 4, 2025at BOSMIN 5 − 4
May 3, 2025at BOSMIN 4 − 3
May 2, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 1

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 22at BOS8 − 6W
May 20vs HOU4 − 1W
May 19vs HOU1 − 2L
May 18vs HOU6 − 3W
May 17vs MIL5 − 4W
May 16vs MIL1 − 2L
May 15vs MIL2 − 3L
May 14vs MIA9 − 1W
May 13vs MIA5 − 9L
May 12vs MIA3 − 0W

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 22vs MIN6 − 8L
May 20at KC4 − 3W
May 19at KC7 − 1W
May 18at KC3 − 1W
May 17at ATL1 − 8L
May 16at ATL3 − 2W
May 15at ATL2 − 3L
May 14vs PHI1 − 3L
May 13vs PHI3 − 1W
May 12vs PHI1 − 2L