bayesRatings

Twins at Red Sox

MLB · Sunday, May 24 · 12:35 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final MIN 6 – BOS 5
← MLB / May 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN1020030006121
BOS0103000015111
Team box
MIN·BOS
12
hits
11
0
home runs
2
5
walks
1
12
strikeouts
7
138
pitches thrown
178
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willson ContrerasBOS2-4112
Masataka YoshidaBOS2-4211
Brooks LeeMIN2-4102
Orlando ArciaMIN3-5100
Trevor LarnachMIN2-4201
Kody ClemensMIN2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bailey Ober (W)MIN5.07403
Travis Adams (S)MIN0.10000
Sonny GrayBOS4.06324
Tyron Guerrero (L)BOS0.22202

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 1 · MIN 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 45%, BOS 55% · Updated May 24

Expected margin
BOS by 0.5
Expected score
BOS 4.5 – 4.0 MIN
Expected total
8.4
TwinsThe matchupRed Sox
+120Our fair odds−120
4.0Expected runs4.5
−0.08Power rating+0.03
4.7Runs / game3.7
4.6Allowed / game4.0
7.9Hits / game8.0
1.10Home runs / game0.71
3.7Walks drawn / game3.2
25−27Season record22−29
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · BOS chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi41.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+12045%+14041.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−12055%−17563.6%———
SpreadBOS by 0.5
MINMinnesota Twins+0.5our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.5 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more40%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 11 Kstarted
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.06 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·BOS
May 23 at BOS
last game
May 23 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
MIN·BOS
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.7
runs / game
3.7
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.0
25−27
season record
22−29
15−14
home record
8−16
10−13
away record
14−13
W3
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.0
1.10
home runs / game
0.71
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.52
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

MIN · BOS · 60 days
Minnesota TwinsBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 3−7
May 23at BOSMIN 4 − 2
May 22at BOSMIN 8 − 6
Apr 15at MINBOS 9 − 5
Apr 14at MINMIN 6 − 0
Apr 13at MINMIN 13 − 6
Jul 30, 2025at MINBOS 13 − 1
Jul 29, 2025at MINBOS 8 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 4
May 4, 2025at BOSMIN 5 − 4
May 3, 2025at BOSMIN 4 − 3

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
May 23at BOS4 − 2W
May 22at BOS8 − 6W
May 20vs HOU4 − 1W
May 19vs HOU1 − 2L
May 18vs HOU6 − 3W
May 17vs MIL5 − 4W
May 16vs MIL1 − 2L
May 15vs MIL2 − 3L
May 14vs MIA9 − 1W
May 13vs MIA5 − 9L

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 23vs MIN2 − 4L
May 22vs MIN6 − 8L
May 20at KC4 − 3W
May 19at KC7 − 1W
May 18at KC3 − 1W
May 17at ATL1 − 8L
May 16at ATL3 − 2W
May 15at ATL2 − 3L
May 14vs PHI1 − 3L
May 13vs PHI3 − 1W