bayesRatings

Twins at White Sox

MLB · Thursday, May 28 · 1:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final MIN 2 – CHW 6
← MLB / May 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000010100251
CHW10410000681
Team box
MIN·CHW
5
hits
8
0
home runs
0
2
walks
4
8
strikeouts
10
146
pitches thrown
126
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Randal GrichukCHW1-4003
Tristan PetersCHW3-4101
Colson MontgomeryCHW2-4101
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-2101
Victor CaratiniMIN1-3001
Tristan GrayMIN2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Simeon Woods Richardson (L)MIN2.25534
Davis Martin (W)CHW6.02125

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +6
MIN +6
123456789
largest lead: CHW 6 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 50%, CHW 50% · Updated May 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.7 – 4.7 MIN
Expected total
9.3
TwinsThe matchupWhite Sox
+102Our fair odds−102
4.7Expected runs4.7
−0.10Power rating−0.14
4.6Runs / game4.7
4.7Allowed / game4.7
7.9Hits / game7.8
1.07Home runs / game1.36
3.6Walks drawn / game3.8
27−29Season record28−27
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CHW chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+10250%+13442.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−10250%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota TwinsPKour margin————
CHWChicago White SoxPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more36%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more27%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINSimeon Woods Richardson SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 11.25 ERA, 5 Kstarted
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CHW
May 27 at CHW
last game
May 27 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
MIN·CHW
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
4.6
runs / game
4.7
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.7
27−29
season record
28−27
15−14
home record
16−11
12−15
away record
12−16
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
7.8
1.07
home runs / game
1.36
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.50
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

MIN · CHW · 64 days
Minnesota TwinsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 8−2
May 27at CHWCHW 15 − 2
May 26at CHWMIN 5 − 3
May 25at CHWCHW 3 − 1
Sep 4, 2025at MINCHW 11 − 8
Sep 3, 2025at MINCHW 4 − 3
Sep 2, 2025at MINCHW 12 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at MINCHW 6 − 5
Aug 24, 2025at CHWCHW 8 − 0
Aug 23, 2025at CHWCHW 7 − 3
Aug 22, 2025at CHWMIN 9 − 7

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 27at CHW2 − 15L
May 26at CHW5 − 3W
May 25at CHW1 − 3L
May 24at BOS6 − 5W
May 23at BOS4 − 2W
May 22at BOS8 − 6W
May 20vs HOU4 − 1W
May 19vs HOU1 − 2L
May 18vs HOU6 − 3W
May 17vs MIL5 − 4W

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 27vs MIN15 − 2W
May 26vs MIN3 − 5L
May 25vs MIN3 − 1W
May 24at SF5 − 8L
May 23at SF3 − 10L
May 22at SF9 − 4W
May 20at SEA4 − 5L
May 19at SEA2 − 1W
May 18at SEA1 − 6L
May 17vs CHC9 − 8W