bayesRatings

White Sox at Giants

MLB · Saturday, May 23 · 3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final CHW 3 – SF 10
← MLB / May 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW0000300003101
SF0003600110140
Team box
CHW·SF
10
hits
14
0
home runs
3
1
walks
3
12
strikeouts
6
161
pitches thrown
147
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Harrison BaderSF2-4114
Casey SchmittSF2-4113
Willy AdamesSF1-5111
Miguel VargasCHW2-4001
Daniel SusacSF1-3102
Drew RomoCHW1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan HudsonCHW1.10001
Erick Fedde (L)CHW3.110823
Adrian HouserSF4.27305
Matt Gage (W)SF1.11004

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +7
CHW +7
123456789
largest lead: SF 7 · CHW 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 47%, SF 53% · Updated May 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.2 – 4.0 CHW
Expected total
8.2
White SoxThe matchupGiants
+113Our fair odds−113
4.0Expected runs4.2
−0.15Power rating−0.10
4.5Runs / game3.5
4.7Allowed / game4.6
7.7Hits / game8.3
1.36Home runs / game0.80
3.8Walks drawn / game2.1
26−24Season record20−31
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · SF chance
Our model fair47.0%53.0%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+11347%−10751.8%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−11353%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox+0.2our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 13%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 16%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%
← CHW wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more37%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more26%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWBryan Hudson RP · last 2 starts: 2.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 Kstarted
SFAdrian Houser SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·SF
May 22 at SF
last game
May 22 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
CHW·SF
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.5
runs / game
3.5
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
26−24
season record
20−31
14−10
home record
10−13
12−14
away record
10−18
W1
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.3
1.36
home runs / game
0.80
3.8
walks drawn / game
2.1
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.50
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

CHW · SF · 59 days
Chicago White SoxSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
May 22at SFCHW 9 − 4
Jun 29, 2025at CHWCHW 5 − 2
Jun 28, 2025at CHWCHW 1 − 0
Jun 27, 2025at CHWSF 3 − 1
Aug 21, 2024at SFCHW 6 − 2
Aug 20, 2024at SFSF 4 − 1
Aug 19, 2024at SFSF 5 − 3
Apr 6, 2023at CHWSF 16 − 6
Apr 5, 2023at CHWCHW 7 − 3
Apr 3, 2023at CHWSF 12 − 3

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
May 22at SF9 − 4W
May 20at SEA4 − 5L
May 19at SEA2 − 1W
May 18at SEA1 − 6L
May 17vs CHC9 − 8W
May 16vs CHC8 − 3W
May 15vs CHC5 − 10L
May 14vs KC6 − 2W
May 13vs KC6 − 5W
May 12vs KC6 − 5W

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
May 22vs CHW4 − 9L
May 20at ARI3 − 6L
May 19at ARI3 − 5L
May 18at ARI2 − 12L
May 17at ATH10 − 1W
May 16at ATH6 − 4W
May 15at ATH2 − 5L
May 14at LAD2 − 5L
May 13at LAD0 − 4L
May 12at LAD6 − 2W