bayesRatings

White Sox at Mariners

MLB · Monday, May 18 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final CHW 1 – SEA 6
← MLB / May 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW000000100161
SEA10100103680
Team box
CHW·SEA
6
hits
8
1
home runs
2
3
walks
1
11
strikeouts
9
156
pitches thrown
138
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colt EmersonSEA1-4113
Josh NaylorSEA3-4101
Tristan PetersCHW1-4111
Julio RodriguezSEA1-4111
Randy ArozarenaSEA2-4101
Munetaka MurakamiCHW2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Noah Schultz (L)CHW5.15306
Bryan Woo (W)SEA6.03028

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +5
CHW +5
123456789
largest lead: SEA 5 · CHW 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 43%, SEA 57% · Updated May 18

Expected margin
SEA by 0.8
Expected score
SEA 4.7 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
8.5
White SoxThe matchupMariners
+132Our fair odds−132
3.9Expected runs4.7
−0.15Power rating+0.05
4.6Runs / game4.1
4.7Allowed / game4.0
7.8Hits / game7.5
1.43Home runs / game1.12
3.8Walks drawn / game3.9
24−22Season record22−26
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · SEA chance
Our model fair43.0%57.0%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+13243%+12943.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−13257%−16161.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.8
CHWChicago White Sox+0.8our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.8 expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more43%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more32%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWNoah Schultz SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 8 Kstarted
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·SEA
May 17 vs CHC
last game
May 17 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
CHW·SEA
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.6
runs / game
4.1
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.0
24−22
season record
22−26
14−10
home record
12−14
10−12
away record
10−12
W2
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
7.5
1.43
home runs / game
1.12
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.9
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.50
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

CHW · SEA · 54 days
Chicago White SoxSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 7−3
May 10at CHWCHW 2 − 1
May 9at CHWCHW 6 − 1
May 8at CHWSEA 12 − 8
Aug 7, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Aug 6, 2025at SEASEA 8 − 6
Aug 5, 2025at SEASEA 8 − 3
May 21, 2025at CHWSEA 6 − 5
May 20, 2025at CHWCHW 1 − 0
May 19, 2025at CHWSEA 5 − 1
Jul 28, 2024at CHWSEA 6 − 3

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
May 17vs CHC9 − 8W
May 16vs CHC8 − 3W
May 15vs CHC5 − 10L
May 14vs KC6 − 2W
May 13vs KC6 − 5W
May 12vs KC6 − 5W
May 10vs SEA2 − 1W
May 9vs SEA6 − 1W
May 8vs SEA8 − 12L
May 6at LAA2 − 8L

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 17vs SD3 − 8L
May 16vs SD4 − 7L
May 15vs SD0 − 2L
May 14at HOU8 − 3W
May 13at HOU3 − 4L
May 12at HOU10 − 2W
May 11at HOU3 − 1W
May 10at CHW1 − 2L
May 9at CHW1 − 6L
May 8at CHW12 − 8W