bayesRatings

Padres at Mariners

MLB · Saturday, May 16 · 6:15 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final SD 7 – SEA 4
← MLB / May 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD010400200770
SEA000110020480
Team box
SD·SEA
7
hits
8
3
home runs
1
4
walks
4
6
strikeouts
9
162
pitches thrown
130
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick CastellanosSD1-3113
Rodolfo DuranSD1-4112
J.P. CrawfordSEA2-5111
Gavin SheetsSD1-2111
Cole YoungSEA1-4002
Miguel AndujarSD1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walker Buehler (W)SD5.05226
Jeremiah Estrada (S)SD1.01010
Logan Gilbert (L)SEA6.25725

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +5
SD +5
123456789
largest lead: SEA 0 · SD 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 48%, SEA 52% · Updated May 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.2 – 3.9 SD
Expected total
8.1
PadresThe matchupMariners
+107Our fair odds−107
3.9Expected runs4.2
+0.10Power rating+0.07
4.1Runs / game4.2
4.1Allowed / game3.8
7.3Hits / game7.7
0.93Home runs / game1.15
3.2Walks drawn / game3.9
26−18Season record22−24
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · SEA chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+10748%+14041.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−10752%−16862.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres+0.3our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 14%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%
← SD wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more38%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more27%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SEALogan Gilbert SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·SEA
May 15 at SEA
last game
May 15 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
SD·SEA
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.1
runs / game
4.2
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.8
26−18
season record
22−24
13−10
home record
12−12
13−8
away record
10−12
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.3
hits / game
7.7
0.93
home runs / game
1.15
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.27
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

SD · SEA · 52 days
San Diego PadresSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 5−5
May 15at SEASD 2 − 0
Apr 16at SDSD 5 − 2
Apr 15at SDSD 7 − 6
Apr 14at SDSD 4 − 1
Aug 27, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at SEASD 7 − 6
Aug 25, 2025at SEASEA 9 − 6
May 18, 2025at SDSEA 6 − 1
May 17, 2025at SDSEA 4 − 1
May 16, 2025at SDSEA 5 − 1

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 15at SEA2 − 0W
May 14at MIL1 − 7L
May 13at MIL3 − 1W
May 12at MIL4 − 6L
May 10vs STL3 − 2W
May 9vs STL4 − 2W
May 8vs STL0 − 6L
May 7vs STL1 − 2L
May 6at SF5 − 1W
May 5at SF10 − 5W

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 15vs SD0 − 2L
May 14at HOU8 − 3W
May 13at HOU3 − 4L
May 12at HOU10 − 2W
May 11at HOU3 − 1W
May 10at CHW1 − 2L
May 9at CHW1 − 6L
May 8at CHW12 − 8W
May 6vs ATL3 − 1W
May 5vs ATL2 − 3L