bayesRatings

Padres at Mariners

MLB · Friday, May 15 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final SD 2 – SEA 0
← MLB / May 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000100100290
SEA000000000071
Team box
SD·SEA
9
hits
7
0
home runs
0
1
walks
3
7
strikeouts
9
143
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Miguel AndujarSD2-4101
Xander BogaertsSD2-4000
Ramon LaureanoSD2-4000
Gavin SheetsSD2-3100
Sung-Mun SongSD1-4001
Randy ArozarenaSEA2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Randy Vasquez (W)SD6.04003
Mason Miller (S)SD1.12014
Emerson Hancock (L)SEA6.05116

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 0 · SD 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 48%, SEA 52% · Updated May 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.2 – 3.9 SD
Expected total
8.2
PadresThe matchupMariners
+109Our fair odds−109
3.9Expected runs4.2
+0.09Power rating+0.08
4.1Runs / game4.2
4.2Allowed / game3.9
7.3Hits / game7.7
0.95Home runs / game1.18
3.2Walks drawn / game3.9
25−18Season record22−23
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · SEA chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+10948%+10947.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−10952%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres+0.3our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 14%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%
← SD wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more38%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more27%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.17 ERA, 12 Kstarted
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·SEA
May 14 at MIL
last game
May 14 at HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
SD·SEA
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.1
runs / game
4.2
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.9
25−18
season record
22−23
13−10
home record
12−11
12−8
away record
10−12
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.3
hits / game
7.7
0.95
home runs / game
1.18
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.28
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

SD · SEA · 51 days
San Diego PadresSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 6−4
Apr 16at SDSD 5 − 2
Apr 15at SDSD 7 − 6
Apr 14at SDSD 4 − 1
Aug 27, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at SEASD 7 − 6
Aug 25, 2025at SEASEA 9 − 6
May 18, 2025at SDSEA 6 − 1
May 17, 2025at SDSEA 4 − 1
May 16, 2025at SDSEA 5 − 1
Sep 11, 2024at SEASEA 5 − 2

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 14at MIL1 − 7L
May 13at MIL3 − 1W
May 12at MIL4 − 6L
May 10vs STL3 − 2W
May 9vs STL4 − 2W
May 8vs STL0 − 6L
May 7vs STL1 − 2L
May 6at SF5 − 1W
May 5at SF10 − 5W
May 4at SF2 − 3L

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 14at HOU8 − 3W
May 13at HOU3 − 4L
May 12at HOU10 − 2W
May 11at HOU3 − 1W
May 10at CHW1 − 2L
May 9at CHW1 − 6L
May 8at CHW12 − 8W
May 6vs ATL3 − 1W
May 5vs ATL2 − 3L
May 4vs ATL5 − 4W