bayesRatings

Padres at Mariners

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 6:20 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final SD 8 – SEA 3
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD1000151008102
SEA000003000310
Team box
SD·SEA
10
hits
1
2
home runs
0
4
walks
5
10
strikeouts
8
139
pitches thrown
168
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gavin SheetsSD3-3224
Ty FranceSD3-4003
Jackson MerrillSD1-4101
Manny MachadoSD1-5100
Miguel AndujarSD1-5100
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Lucas Giolito (W)SD5.01333
George Kirby (L)SEA5.26626

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +7
SD +7
123456789
largest lead: SEA 0 · SD 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 49%, SEA 51% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.2 – 4.0 SD
Expected total
8.2
PadresThe matchupMariners
+104Our fair odds−104
4.0Expected runs4.2
+0.11Power rating+0.06
4.2Runs / game4.1
4.1Allowed / game3.9
7.3Hits / game7.7
0.98Home runs / game1.15
3.2Walks drawn / game3.9
27−18Season record22−25
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · SEA chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+10449%+12444.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−10451%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres+0.2our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 14%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%
← SD wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more37%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more27%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDLucas Giolito SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·SEA
May 16 at SEA
last game
May 16 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
SD·SEA
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.2
runs / game
4.1
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.9
27−18
season record
22−25
13−10
home record
12−13
14−8
away record
10−12
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.3
hits / game
7.7
0.98
home runs / game
1.15
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.27
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

SD · SEA · 53 days
San Diego PadresSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 4−6
May 16at SEASD 7 − 4
May 15at SEASD 2 − 0
Apr 16at SDSD 5 − 2
Apr 15at SDSD 7 − 6
Apr 14at SDSD 4 − 1
Aug 27, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at SEASD 7 − 6
Aug 25, 2025at SEASEA 9 − 6
May 18, 2025at SDSEA 6 − 1
May 17, 2025at SDSEA 4 − 1

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 16at SEA7 − 4W
May 15at SEA2 − 0W
May 14at MIL1 − 7L
May 13at MIL3 − 1W
May 12at MIL4 − 6L
May 10vs STL3 − 2W
May 9vs STL4 − 2W
May 8vs STL0 − 6L
May 7vs STL1 − 2L
May 6at SF5 − 1W

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 16vs SD4 − 7L
May 15vs SD0 − 2L
May 14at HOU8 − 3W
May 13at HOU3 − 4L
May 12at HOU10 − 2W
May 11at HOU3 − 1W
May 10at CHW1 − 2L
May 9at CHW1 − 6L
May 8at CHW12 − 8W
May 6vs ATL3 − 1W