bayesRatings

White Sox at Giants

MLB · Friday, May 22 · 9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final CHW 9 – SF 4
← MLB / May 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW000900000951
SF000031000472
Team box
CHW·SF
5
hits
7
0
home runs
0
5
walks
3
9
strikeouts
12
141
pitches thrown
163
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-3203
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-5102
Luis ArraezSF2-5001
Derek HillCHW1-4101
Willy AdamesSF1-5101
Jesus RodriguezSF1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Davis Martin (W)CHW5.26427
Trevor McDonald (L)SF3.23714

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +9
CHW +9
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · CHW 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 46%, SF 54% · Updated May 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.2 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
8.0
White SoxThe matchupGiants
+117Our fair odds−117
3.9Expected runs4.2
−0.17Power rating−0.08
4.4Runs / game3.5
4.7Allowed / game4.5
7.7Hits / game8.3
1.39Home runs / game0.82
3.8Walks drawn / game2.1
25−24Season record20−30
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · SF chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+11746%−12154.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−11754%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox+0.3our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 11%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%
← CHW wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more37%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more27%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.95 ERA, 26 Kstarted
SFTrevor McDonald SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·SF
May 20 at SEA
last game
May 20 at ARI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
CHW·SF
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.4
runs / game
3.5
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
25−24
season record
20−30
14−10
home record
10−12
11−14
away record
10−18
L1
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
8.3
1.39
home runs / game
0.82
3.8
walks drawn / game
2.1
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.49
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

CHW · SF · 58 days
Chicago White SoxSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
Jun 29, 2025at CHWCHW 5 − 2
Jun 28, 2025at CHWCHW 1 − 0
Jun 27, 2025at CHWSF 3 − 1
Aug 21, 2024at SFCHW 6 − 2
Aug 20, 2024at SFSF 4 − 1
Aug 19, 2024at SFSF 5 − 3
Apr 6, 2023at CHWSF 16 − 6
Apr 5, 2023at CHWCHW 7 − 3
Apr 3, 2023at CHWSF 12 − 3
Jul 3, 2022at SFCHW 13 − 4

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 20at SEA4 − 5L
May 19at SEA2 − 1W
May 18at SEA1 − 6L
May 17vs CHC9 − 8W
May 16vs CHC8 − 3W
May 15vs CHC5 − 10L
May 14vs KC6 − 2W
May 13vs KC6 − 5W
May 12vs KC6 − 5W
May 10vs SEA2 − 1W

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 20at ARI3 − 6L
May 19at ARI3 − 5L
May 18at ARI2 − 12L
May 17at ATH10 − 1W
May 16at ATH6 − 4W
May 15at ATH2 − 5L
May 14at LAD2 − 5L
May 13at LAD0 − 4L
May 12at LAD6 − 2W
May 11at LAD9 − 3W