bayesRatings

White Sox at Giants

MLB · Sunday, May 24 · 3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final CHW 5 – SF 8
← MLB / May 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW100120100541
SF202040008110
Team box
CHW·SF
4
hits
11
2
home runs
2
8
walks
2
8
strikeouts
6
155
pitches thrown
157
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rafael DeversSF2-4115
Casey SchmittSF2-4313
Miguel VargasCHW1-3211
Chase MeidrothCHW1-5111
Edgar QueroCHW1-3101
Matt ChapmanSF2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Noah Schultz (L)CHW4.06611
Robbie RaySF4.02473
Keaton Winn (W)SF2.01011
Caleb Kilian (S)SF1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +4
CHW +4
123456789
largest lead: SF 4 · CHW 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 46%, SF 54% · Updated May 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.2 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
8.2
White SoxThe matchupGiants
+116Our fair odds−116
3.9Expected runs4.2
−0.16Power rating−0.08
4.5Runs / game3.6
4.8Allowed / game4.6
7.7Hits / game8.4
1.33Home runs / game0.85
3.8Walks drawn / game2.1
26−25Season record21−31
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · SF chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+11646%+10548.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−11654%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox+0.3our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 16%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%
← CHW wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more38%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more27%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWNoah Schultz SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 8.78 ERA, 12 Kstarted
SFRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.80 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·SF
May 23 at SF
last game
May 23 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
CHW·SF
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.5
runs / game
3.6
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.6
26−25
season record
21−31
14−10
home record
11−13
12−15
away record
10−18
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.4
1.33
home runs / game
0.85
3.8
walks drawn / game
2.1
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.51
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

CHW · SF · 60 days
Chicago White SoxSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
May 23at SFSF 10 − 3
May 22at SFCHW 9 − 4
Jun 29, 2025at CHWCHW 5 − 2
Jun 28, 2025at CHWCHW 1 − 0
Jun 27, 2025at CHWSF 3 − 1
Aug 21, 2024at SFCHW 6 − 2
Aug 20, 2024at SFSF 4 − 1
Aug 19, 2024at SFSF 5 − 3
Apr 6, 2023at CHWSF 16 − 6
Apr 5, 2023at CHWCHW 7 − 3

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 23at SF3 − 10L
May 22at SF9 − 4W
May 20at SEA4 − 5L
May 19at SEA2 − 1W
May 18at SEA1 − 6L
May 17vs CHC9 − 8W
May 16vs CHC8 − 3W
May 15vs CHC5 − 10L
May 14vs KC6 − 2W
May 13vs KC6 − 5W

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 23vs CHW10 − 3W
May 22vs CHW4 − 9L
May 20at ARI3 − 6L
May 19at ARI3 − 5L
May 18at ARI2 − 12L
May 17at ATH10 − 1W
May 16at ATH6 − 4W
May 15at ATH2 − 5L
May 14at LAD2 − 5L
May 13at LAD0 − 4L