bayesRatings

Mariners at Tigers

MLB · Friday, Jun 5 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final SEA 3 – DET 7
← MLB / Jun 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA1000001103110
DET003000227120
Team box
SEA·DET
11
hits
12
1
home runs
2
3
walks
0
9
strikeouts
10
122
pitches thrown
165
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gleyber TorresDET3-4102
Kerry CarpenterDET1-4112
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-4112
Colt EmersonSEA1-4111
Rob RefsnyderSEA2-2001
Riley GreeneDET2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan Woo (L)SEA6.19507
Framber Valdez (W)DET5.05125

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +4
SEA +4
123456789
largest lead: DET 4 · SEA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 52%, DET 48% · Updated Jun 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.2 – 3.8 DET
Expected total
8.1
MarinersThe matchupTigers
−109Our fair odds+109
4.2Expected runs3.8
+0.09Power rating−0.06
4.2Runs / game3.9
3.8Allowed / game4.3
7.8Hits / game7.8
1.30Home runs / game0.97
3.5Walks drawn / game3.7
33−30Season record25−38
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · DET chance
Our model fair52.2%47.8%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−10952%−12655.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers+10948%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners−0.4our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 16%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byDET wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more39%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more28%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 21 Kstarted
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.58 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·DET
Jun 3 vs NYM
last game
Jun 3 at TB
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
SEA·DET
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.2
runs / game
3.9
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
33−30
season record
25−38
19−16
home record
14−14
14−14
away record
11−24
L1
streak
W3
8−2
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.8
1.30
home runs / game
0.97
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.43
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

SEA · DET · 72 days
Seattle MarinersDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 3−7
Oct 10, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2post
Oct 8, 2025at DETDET 9 − 3post
Oct 7, 2025at DETSEA 8 − 4post
Oct 5, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2post
Oct 4, 2025at SEADET 3 − 2post
Jul 13, 2025at DETSEA 8 − 4
Jul 12, 2025at DETSEA 15 − 7
Jul 11, 2025at DETSEA 12 − 3
Apr 2, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2
Apr 1, 2025at SEADET 4 − 1

SEA · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Jun 3vs NYM1 − 7L
Jun 2vs NYM8 − 3W
Jun 1vs NYM3 − 2W
May 31vs ARI3 − 2W
May 30vs ARI5 − 1W
May 29vs ARI7 − 6W
May 27at ATH9 − 1W
May 26at ATH4 − 1W
May 25at ATH9 − 2W
May 24at KC6 − 8L

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jun 3at TB7 − 2W
Jun 2at TB8 − 0W
Jun 1at TB10 − 9W
May 31at CHW1 − 2L
May 30at CHW1 − 7L
May 29at CHW3 − 4L
May 28vs LAA1 − 7L
May 27vs LAA4 − 0W
May 26vs LAA6 − 10L
May 24at BAL4 − 1W