bayesRatings

Mariners at Athletics

MLB · Tuesday, May 26 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final SEA 4 – ATH 1
← MLB / May 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA0301000004110
ATH000000001140
Team box
SEA·ATH
11
hits
4
0
home runs
1
1
walks
2
8
strikeouts
5
133
pitches thrown
124
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler SoderstromATH2-4111
Mitch GarverSEA2-4101
Victor RoblesSEA3-3100
Zack GelofATH2-4000
J.P. CrawfordSEA1-4001
Josh NaylorSEA2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emerson Hancock (W)SEA6.01023
Gage Jump (L)ATH5.09415

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +4
SEA +4
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · SEA 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 51%, ATH 49% · Updated May 26

Expected margin
SEA by 0.6
Expected score
SEA 4.8 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
8.9
MarinersThe matchupAthletics
−106Our fair odds+106
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.05Power rating−0.06
4.1Runs / game4.3
3.9Allowed / game4.6
7.5Hits / game8.4
1.16Home runs / game1.04
3.7Walks drawn / game3.9
26−29Season record27−27
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · ATH chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−10651%−10350.7%———
ATHAthletics+10649%−11653.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.6
SEASeattle Mariners−0.6our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.6 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 17%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byATH wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more42%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more31%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 14 Kstarted
ATHGage Jump SP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·ATH
May 25 at ATH
last game
May 25 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
SEA·ATH
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.1
runs / game
4.3
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.6
26−29
season record
27−27
14−15
home record
10−13
12−14
away record
17−14
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.4
1.16
home runs / game
1.04
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.44
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

SEA · ATH · 62 days
Seattle MarinersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 5−5
May 25at ATHSEA 9 − 2
Apr 22at SEASEA 5 − 4
Apr 21at SEAATH 5 − 2
Apr 20at SEAATH 6 − 4
Aug 24, 2025at SEASEA 11 − 4
Aug 23, 2025at SEAATH 2 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2
Jul 30, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
Jul 29, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 1
Jul 28, 2025at ATHSEA 3 − 1

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 25at ATH9 − 2W
May 24at KC6 − 8L
May 23at KC0 − 5L
May 22at KC2 − 0W
May 20vs CHW5 − 4W
May 19vs CHW1 − 2L
May 18vs CHW6 − 1W
May 17vs SD3 − 8L
May 16vs SD4 − 7L
May 15vs SD0 − 2L

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 25vs SEA2 − 9L
May 24at SD5 − 2W
May 23at SD0 − 2L
May 22at SD3 − 7L
May 21at LAA3 − 2W
May 20at LAA6 − 5W
May 19at LAA14 − 6W
May 18at LAA1 − 2L
May 17vs SF1 − 10L
May 16vs SF4 − 6L