bayesRatings

Athletics at Padres

MLB · Sunday, May 24 · 3:10 PM CT · Petco Park · Final ATH 5 – SD 2
← MLB / May 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH1201000015101
SD000001100290
Team box
ATH·SD
10
hits
9
1
home runs
1
7
walks
4
11
strikeouts
7
164
pitches thrown
176
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carlos CortesATH2-4111
Ty FranceSD2-4111
Tyler SoderstromATH2-5001
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD3-5000
Jonah HeimATH2-4100
Alika WilliamsATH1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis MedinaATH1.12001
Jacob Lopez (W)ATH4.26113
Scott Barlow (S)ATH0.20001
Michael King (L)SD3.25444

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +4
ATH +4
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · ATH 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 44%, SD 56% · Updated May 24

Expected margin
SD by 0.8
Expected score
SD 4.4 – 3.6 ATH
Expected total
8.0
AthleticsThe matchupPadres
+129Our fair odds−129
3.6Expected runs4.4
−0.06Power rating+0.13
4.4Runs / game4.1
4.6Allowed / game3.9
8.4Hits / game7.1
1.04Home runs / game1.02
3.8Walks drawn / game3.3
26−26Season record31−20
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · SD chance
Our model fair43.6%56.4%
Kalshi41.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12944%+14041.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−12956%−17563.6%———
SpreadSD by 0.8
ATHAthletics+0.8our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.8 expected
Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: <1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← ATH wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more42%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more31%
Athletics wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHLuis Medina RP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 15 Kstarted
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 0.96 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·SD
May 23 at SD
last game
May 23 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
ATH·SD
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
4.4
runs / game
4.1
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.9
26−26
season record
31−20
10−12
home record
16−12
16−14
away record
15−8
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.4
hits / game
7.1
1.04
home runs / game
1.02
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.33
errors / game
0.31

Rating Trend

ATH · SD · 60 days
AthleticsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 9−1
May 23at SDSD 2 − 0
May 22at SDSD 7 − 3
Apr 9, 2025at ATHSD 2 − 1
Apr 8, 2025at ATHATH 10 − 4
Apr 7, 2025at ATHSD 5 − 4
Jun 12, 2024at SDSD 5 − 4
Jun 11, 2024at SDSD 4 − 3
Jun 10, 2024at SDSD 6 − 1
Sep 17, 2023at ATHSD 10 − 1
Sep 16, 2023at ATHSD 5 − 2

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 23at SD0 − 2L
May 22at SD3 − 7L
May 21at LAA3 − 2W
May 20at LAA6 − 5W
May 19at LAA14 − 6W
May 18at LAA1 − 2L
May 17vs SF1 − 10L
May 16vs SF4 − 6L
May 15vs SF5 − 2W
May 14vs STL4 − 5L

SD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
May 23vs ATH2 − 0W
May 22vs ATH7 − 3W
May 20vs LAD0 − 4L
May 19vs LAD4 − 5L
May 18vs LAD1 − 0W
May 17at SEA8 − 3W
May 16at SEA7 − 4W
May 15at SEA2 − 0W
May 14at MIL1 − 7L
May 13at MIL3 − 1W