bayesRatings

Athletics at Padres

MLB · Saturday, May 23 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final ATH 0 – SD 2
← MLB / May 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000000000050
SD01100000220
Team box
ATH·SD
5
hits
2
0
home runs
0
6
walks
8
7
strikeouts
10
153
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick KurtzATH2-4000
Carlos CortesATH1-3000
Shea LangeliersATH1-4000
Darell HernaizATH1-3000
Ty FranceSD0-3001
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD0-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
J.T. Ginn (L)ATH2.10264
Lucas Giolito (W)SD5.04052
Mason Miller (S)SD1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 2 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 44%, SD 56% · Updated May 23

Expected margin
SD by 0.7
Expected score
SD 4.4 – 3.7 ATH
Expected total
8.1
AthleticsThe matchupPadres
+128Our fair odds−128
3.7Expected runs4.4
−0.06Power rating+0.12
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.6Allowed / game4.0
8.5Hits / game7.2
1.06Home runs / game1.04
3.8Walks drawn / game3.2
26−25Season record30−20
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · SD chance
Our model fair43.8%56.2%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12844%−13156.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−12856%+10947.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.7
ATHAthletics+0.7our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.7 expected
Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← ATH wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more41%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more30%
Athletics wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 22.0 IP, 1.23 ERA, 21 Kstarted
SDLucas Giolito SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·SD
May 22 at SD
last game
May 22 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
ATH·SD
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.0
26−25
season record
30−20
10−12
home record
15−12
16−13
away record
15−8
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.5
hits / game
7.2
1.06
home runs / game
1.04
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.33
errors / game
0.32

Rating Trend

ATH · SD · 59 days
AthleticsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 9−1
May 22at SDSD 7 − 3
Apr 9, 2025at ATHSD 2 − 1
Apr 8, 2025at ATHATH 10 − 4
Apr 7, 2025at ATHSD 5 − 4
Jun 12, 2024at SDSD 5 − 4
Jun 11, 2024at SDSD 4 − 3
Jun 10, 2024at SDSD 6 − 1
Sep 17, 2023at ATHSD 10 − 1
Sep 16, 2023at ATHSD 5 − 2
Sep 15, 2023at ATHSD 8 − 3

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 22at SD3 − 7L
May 21at LAA3 − 2W
May 20at LAA6 − 5W
May 19at LAA14 − 6W
May 18at LAA1 − 2L
May 17vs SF1 − 10L
May 16vs SF4 − 6L
May 15vs SF5 − 2W
May 14vs STL4 − 5L
May 13vs STL6 − 2W

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 22vs ATH7 − 3W
May 20vs LAD0 − 4L
May 19vs LAD4 − 5L
May 18vs LAD1 − 0W
May 17at SEA8 − 3W
May 16at SEA7 − 4W
May 15at SEA2 − 0W
May 14at MIL1 − 7L
May 13at MIL3 − 1W
May 12at MIL4 − 6L