bayesRatings

Dodgers at Padres

MLB · Monday, May 18 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final LAD 0 – SD 1
← MLB / May 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000000000050
SD10000000141
Team box
LAD·SD
5
hits
4
0
home runs
1
5
walks
2
10
strikeouts
8
113
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Miguel AndujarSD2-4111
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-3000
Mookie BettsLAD1-4000
Andy PagesLAD1-4000
Hyeseong KimLAD1-2000
Xander BogaertsSD1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (L)LAD7.03128
Michael King (W)SD7.04029
Mason Miller (S)SD1.00021

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 1 · LAD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 53%, SD 47% · Updated May 18

Expected margin
LAD by 0.7
Expected score
LAD 4.3 – 3.6 SD
Expected total
8.0
DodgersThe matchupPadres
−114Our fair odds+114
4.3Expected runs3.6
+0.34Power rating+0.12
5.3Runs / game4.2
3.3Allowed / game4.1
8.9Hits / game7.4
1.32Home runs / game1.00
4.0Walks drawn / game3.2
29−18Season record28−18
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · SD chance
Our model fair53.3%46.7%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11453%−14258.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres+11447%+11945.7%———
SpreadLAD by 0.7
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.7our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.7 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 12%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 18%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← LAD wins bySD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more42%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more31%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.71 ERA, 20 Kstarted
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·SD
May 17 at LAA
last game
May 17 at SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
LAD·SD
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
5.3
runs / game
4.2
3.3
runs allowed / game
4.1
29−18
season record
28−18
15−10
home record
13−10
14−8
away record
15−8
W5
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.9
hits / game
7.4
1.32
home runs / game
1.00
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.32
errors / game
0.30

Rating Trend

LAD · SD · 54 days
Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 3−7
Aug 24, 2025at SDLAD 8 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at SDSD 2 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Aug 16, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 0
Aug 15, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 2
Jun 19, 2025at LADSD 5 − 3
Jun 18, 2025at LADLAD 4 − 3
Jun 17, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 6
Jun 16, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 3

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
May 17at LAA10 − 1W
May 16at LAA15 − 2W
May 15at LAA6 − 0W
May 14vs SF5 − 2W
May 13vs SF4 − 0W
May 12vs SF2 − 6L
May 11vs SF3 − 9L
May 10vs ATL2 − 7L
May 9vs ATL2 − 7L
May 8vs ATL3 − 1W

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
May 17at SEA8 − 3W
May 16at SEA7 − 4W
May 15at SEA2 − 0W
May 14at MIL1 − 7L
May 13at MIL3 − 1W
May 12at MIL4 − 6L
May 10vs STL3 − 2W
May 9vs STL4 − 2W
May 8vs STL0 − 6L
May 7vs STL1 − 2L