bayesRatings

Athletics at Padres

MLB · Friday, May 22 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final ATH 3 – SD 7
← MLB / May 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH200100000380
SD20001013770
Team box
ATH·SD
8
hits
7
0
home runs
3
5
walks
3
8
strikeouts
5
122
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD1-4112
Nick CastellanosSD1-3111
Ramon LaureanoSD1-3111
Henry BolteATH2-3001
Gavin SheetsSD1-4002
Jeff McNeilATH2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jeffrey Springs (L)ATH6.13433
Walker BuehlerSD5.05344
Adrian Morejon (W)SD1.10003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +4
ATH +4
123456789
largest lead: SD 4 · ATH 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 44%, SD 56% · Updated May 22

Expected margin
SD by 0.6
Expected score
SD 4.3 – 3.8 ATH
Expected total
8.1
AthleticsThe matchupPadres
+126Our fair odds−126
3.8Expected runs4.3
−0.05Power rating+0.11
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.6Allowed / game4.0
8.5Hits / game7.2
1.08Home runs / game1.00
3.8Walks drawn / game3.2
26−24Season record29−20
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · SD chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12644%+10149.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−12656%−12154.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.6
ATHAthletics+0.6our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.6 expected
Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← ATH wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more40%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more29%
Athletics wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 12 Kstarted
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·SD
May 21 at LAA
last game
May 20 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
ATH·SD
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.0
26−24
season record
29−20
10−12
home record
14−12
16−12
away record
15−8
W3
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.5
hits / game
7.2
1.08
home runs / game
1.00
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.34
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

ATH · SD · 58 days
AthleticsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 8−2
Apr 9, 2025at ATHSD 2 − 1
Apr 8, 2025at ATHATH 10 − 4
Apr 7, 2025at ATHSD 5 − 4
Jun 12, 2024at SDSD 5 − 4
Jun 11, 2024at SDSD 4 − 3
Jun 10, 2024at SDSD 6 − 1
Sep 17, 2023at ATHSD 10 − 1
Sep 16, 2023at ATHSD 5 − 2
Sep 15, 2023at ATHSD 8 − 3
Aug 4, 2021at ATHATH 5 − 4

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
May 21at LAA3 − 2W
May 20at LAA6 − 5W
May 19at LAA14 − 6W
May 18at LAA1 − 2L
May 17vs SF1 − 10L
May 16vs SF4 − 6L
May 15vs SF5 − 2W
May 14vs STL4 − 5L
May 13vs STL6 − 2W
May 12vs STL4 − 6L

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
May 20vs LAD0 − 4L
May 19vs LAD4 − 5L
May 18vs LAD1 − 0W
May 17at SEA8 − 3W
May 16at SEA7 − 4W
May 15at SEA2 − 0W
May 14at MIL1 − 7L
May 13at MIL3 − 1W
May 12at MIL4 − 6L
May 10vs STL3 − 2W