bayesRatings

Dodgers at Padres

MLB · Tuesday, May 19 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final LAD 5 – SD 4
← MLB / May 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD200011001560
SD202000000461
Team box
LAD·SD
6
hits
6
2
home runs
2
2
walks
4
10
strikeouts
6
133
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4223
Manny MachadoSD1-4112
Miguel AndujarSD1-3112
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-3101
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-5100
Max MuncyLAD1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emmet SheehanLAD4.05412
Tanner Scott (W)LAD1.10012
Will Klein (S)LAD1.00001
Griffin CanningSD5.04315
Mason Miller (L)SD0.20010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 2 · LAD 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 53%, SD 47% · Updated May 19

Expected margin
LAD by 0.6
Expected score
LAD 4.2 – 3.6 SD
Expected total
7.8
DodgersThe matchupPadres
−111Our fair odds+111
4.2Expected runs3.6
+0.33Power rating+0.13
5.2Runs / game4.2
3.2Allowed / game4.0
8.8Hits / game7.3
1.29Home runs / game1.00
4.0Walks drawn / game3.2
29−19Season record29−18
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · SD chance
Our model fair52.6%47.4%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11153%−16862.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres+11147%+14041.7%———
SpreadLAD by 0.6
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.6our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.6 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 12%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 18%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← LAD wins bySD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more41%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more30%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 21 Kstarted
SDGriffin Canning RP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 10.64 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·SD
May 18 at SD
last game
May 18 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
LAD·SD
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
5.2
runs / game
4.2
3.2
runs allowed / game
4.0
29−19
season record
29−18
15−10
home record
14−10
14−9
away record
15−8
L1
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.8
hits / game
7.3
1.29
home runs / game
1.00
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.31
errors / game
0.32

Rating Trend

LAD · SD · 55 days
Los Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 4−6
May 18at SDSD 1 − 0
Aug 24, 2025at SDLAD 8 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at SDSD 2 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Aug 16, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 0
Aug 15, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 2
Jun 19, 2025at LADSD 5 − 3
Jun 18, 2025at LADLAD 4 − 3
Jun 17, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 6

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 18at SD0 − 1L
May 17at LAA10 − 1W
May 16at LAA15 − 2W
May 15at LAA6 − 0W
May 14vs SF5 − 2W
May 13vs SF4 − 0W
May 12vs SF2 − 6L
May 11vs SF3 − 9L
May 10vs ATL2 − 7L
May 9vs ATL2 − 7L

SD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
May 18vs LAD1 − 0W
May 17at SEA8 − 3W
May 16at SEA7 − 4W
May 15at SEA2 − 0W
May 14at MIL1 − 7L
May 13at MIL3 − 1W
May 12at MIL4 − 6L
May 10vs STL3 − 2W
May 9vs STL4 − 2W
May 8vs STL0 − 6L