bayesRatings

Mariners at Athletics

MLB · Monday, May 25 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final SEA 9 – ATH 2
← MLB / May 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA0061000029121
ATH000000011271
Team box
SEA·ATH
12
hits
7
4
home runs
1
1
walks
2
10
strikeouts
10
151
pitches thrown
140
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Randy ArozarenaSEA3-5213
Luke RaleySEA2-5112
Dominic CanzoneSEA1-4112
Shea LangeliersATH1-4111
J.P. CrawfordSEA1-5111
Josh NaylorSEA2-5201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis CastilloSEA4.02026
Bryce Miller (W)SEA5.05204
Aaron Civale (L)ATH4.09712

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +8
SEA +8
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · SEA 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 51%, ATH 49% · Updated May 25

Expected margin
SEA by 0.5
Expected score
SEA 4.7 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
8.9
MarinersThe matchupAthletics
−102Our fair odds+102
4.7Expected runs4.2
+0.04Power rating−0.05
4.0Runs / game4.4
3.9Allowed / game4.5
7.4Hits / game8.5
1.11Home runs / game1.04
3.8Walks drawn / game3.9
25−29Season record27−26
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · ATH chance
Our model fair50.5%49.5%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−10251%−11252.7%———
ATHAthletics+10249%−11252.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.5
SEASeattle Mariners−0.5our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.5 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 17%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byATH wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more41%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more30%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.32 ERA, 17 Kstarted
ATHAaron Civale RP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·ATH
May 24 at KC
last game
May 24 at SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
SEA·ATH
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.0
runs / game
4.4
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
25−29
season record
27−26
14−15
home record
10−12
11−14
away record
17−14
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.4
hits / game
8.5
1.11
home runs / game
1.04
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.43
errors / game
0.34

Rating Trend

SEA · ATH · 61 days
Seattle MarinersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 5−5
Apr 22at SEASEA 5 − 4
Apr 21at SEAATH 5 − 2
Apr 20at SEAATH 6 − 4
Aug 24, 2025at SEASEA 11 − 4
Aug 23, 2025at SEAATH 2 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2
Jul 30, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
Jul 29, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 1
Jul 28, 2025at ATHSEA 3 − 1
May 7, 2025at ATHSEA 6 − 5

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 24at KC6 − 8L
May 23at KC0 − 5L
May 22at KC2 − 0W
May 20vs CHW5 − 4W
May 19vs CHW1 − 2L
May 18vs CHW6 − 1W
May 17vs SD3 − 8L
May 16vs SD4 − 7L
May 15vs SD0 − 2L
May 14at HOU8 − 3W

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 24at SD5 − 2W
May 23at SD0 − 2L
May 22at SD3 − 7L
May 21at LAA3 − 2W
May 20at LAA6 − 5W
May 19at LAA14 − 6W
May 18at LAA1 − 2L
May 17vs SF1 − 10L
May 16vs SF4 − 6L
May 15vs SF5 − 2W