bayesRatings

Mariners at Royals

MLB · Sunday, May 24 · 1:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final SEA 6 – KC 8
← MLB / May 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA1000002036123
KC000041128110
Team box
SEA·KC
12
hits
11
1
home runs
0
2
walks
4
5
strikeouts
5
154
pitches thrown
137
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Salvador PerezKC3-4103
Julio RodriguezSEA2-5212
Colt EmersonSEA4-4101
Maikel GarciaKC2-5002
Carter JensenKC1-4002
Kyle IsbelKC1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan Woo (L)SEA4.26424
Seth Lugo (W)KC6.16323

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +5
SEA +5
123456789
largest lead: KC 5 · SEA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 51%, KC 49% · Updated May 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.0 – 3.8 KC
Expected total
7.7
MarinersThe matchupRoyals
−103Our fair odds+103
4.0Expected runs3.8
+0.05Power rating−0.06
4.0Runs / game3.8
3.8Allowed / game4.3
7.3Hits / game7.8
1.11Home runs / game0.92
3.8Walks drawn / game3.4
25−28Season record21−31
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · KC chance
Our model fair50.8%49.2%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−10351%−12655.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+10349%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners−0.2our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 14%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 17%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byKC wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more36%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more26%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 26 Kstarted
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·KC
May 23 at KC
last game
May 23 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
SEA·KC
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.0
runs / game
3.8
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
25−28
season record
21−31
14−15
home record
14−14
11−13
away record
7−17
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
2−8
7.3
hits / game
7.8
1.11
home runs / game
0.92
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.38
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

SEA · KC · 60 days
Seattle MarinersKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 6−4
May 23at KCKC 5 − 0
May 22at KCSEA 2 − 0
May 3at SEAKC 4 − 1
May 2at SEAKC 3 − 2
May 1at SEAKC 7 − 6
Sep 18, 2025at KCSEA 2 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at KCKC 7 − 5
Sep 16, 2025at KCSEA 12 − 5
Jul 3, 2025at SEAKC 3 − 2
Jul 2, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 23at KC0 − 5L
May 22at KC2 − 0W
May 20vs CHW5 − 4W
May 19vs CHW1 − 2L
May 18vs CHW6 − 1W
May 17vs SD3 − 8L
May 16vs SD4 − 7L
May 15vs SD0 − 2L
May 14at HOU8 − 3W
May 13at HOU3 − 4L

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
May 23vs SEA5 − 0W
May 22vs SEA0 − 2L
May 20vs BOS3 − 4L
May 19vs BOS1 − 7L
May 18vs BOS1 − 3L
May 17at STL2 − 0W
May 16at STL2 − 4L
May 15at STL4 − 5L
May 14at CHW2 − 6L
May 13at CHW5 − 6L