bayesRatings

Mariners at Athletics

MLB · Wednesday, May 27 · 2:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final SEA 9 – ATH 1
← MLB / May 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA3002010309130
ATH000000001182
Team box
SEA·ATH
13
hits
8
2
home runs
0
3
walks
3
9
strikeouts
8
134
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rob RefsnyderSEA1-3113
Julio RodriguezSEA1-5113
Colt EmersonSEA2-4102
J.P. CrawfordSEA3-5100
Darell HernaizATH2-4000
Zack GelofATH2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Gilbert (W)SEA6.05026
Jeffrey Springs (L)ATH5.06217

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +9
SEA +9
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · SEA 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 52%, ATH 48% · Updated May 27

Expected margin
SEA by 0.6
Expected score
SEA 4.7 – 4.1 ATH
Expected total
8.8
MarinersThe matchupAthletics
−107Our fair odds+107
4.7Expected runs4.1
+0.06Power rating−0.07
4.1Runs / game4.3
3.8Allowed / game4.6
7.5Hits / game8.3
1.14Home runs / game1.04
3.7Walks drawn / game3.8
27−29Season record27−28
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · ATH chance
Our model fair51.8%48.2%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−10752%−12154.7%———
ATHAthletics+10748%+10149.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.6
SEASeattle Mariners−0.6our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.6 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 17%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byATH wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more42%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more31%
Athletics wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALogan Gilbert SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 20 Kstarted
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·ATH
May 26 at ATH
last game
May 26 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
SEA·ATH
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.1
runs / game
4.3
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.6
27−29
season record
27−28
14−15
home record
10−14
13−14
away record
17−14
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.3
1.14
home runs / game
1.04
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.43
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

SEA · ATH · 63 days
Seattle MarinersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 5−5
May 26at ATHSEA 4 − 1
May 25at ATHSEA 9 − 2
Apr 22at SEASEA 5 − 4
Apr 21at SEAATH 5 − 2
Apr 20at SEAATH 6 − 4
Aug 24, 2025at SEASEA 11 − 4
Aug 23, 2025at SEAATH 2 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2
Jul 30, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
Jul 29, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 1

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 26at ATH4 − 1W
May 25at ATH9 − 2W
May 24at KC6 − 8L
May 23at KC0 − 5L
May 22at KC2 − 0W
May 20vs CHW5 − 4W
May 19vs CHW1 − 2L
May 18vs CHW6 − 1W
May 17vs SD3 − 8L
May 16vs SD4 − 7L

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 26vs SEA1 − 4L
May 25vs SEA2 − 9L
May 24at SD5 − 2W
May 23at SD0 − 2L
May 22at SD3 − 7L
May 21at LAA3 − 2W
May 20at LAA6 − 5W
May 19at LAA14 − 6W
May 18at LAA1 − 2L
May 17vs SF1 − 10L