bayesRatings

Tigers at White Sox

MLB · Friday, May 29 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final DET 3 – CHW 4
← MLB / May 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
DET0020000001341
CHW00100000124100
Team box
DET·CHW
4
hits
10
1
home runs
1
4
walks
1
9
strikeouts
3
123
pitches thrown
148
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Miguel VargasCHW2-5113
Dillon DinglerDET1-4112
Tristan PetersCHW2-4000
Sam AntonacciCHW2-5000
Riley GreeneDET2-4000
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Troy MeltonDET7.06111
Drew Anderson (L)DET0.21101
Brandon EisertCHW1.10001
Bryan Hudson (W)CHW1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
DET +3
12345678910
largest lead: CHW 1 · DET 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 50%, CHW 50% · Updated May 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.4 – 4.3 CHW
Expected total
8.7
TigersThe matchupWhite Sox
−100Our fair odds+100
4.4Expected runs4.3
−0.07Power rating−0.13
3.8Runs / game4.7
4.4Allowed / game4.7
7.7Hits / game7.8
0.86Home runs / game1.34
3.8Walks drawn / game3.8
22−35Season record29−27
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CHW chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−10050%−10751.8%———
CHWChicago White Sox+10050%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers−0.1our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← DET wins byCHW wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more37%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more27%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETTroy Melton SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 2.02 ERA, 8 Kstarted
CHWBrandon Eisert RP · last 3 starts: 3.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 1 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CHW
May 28 vs LAA
last game
May 28 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
DET·CHW
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
3.8
runs / game
4.7
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.7
22−35
season record
29−27
14−14
home record
17−11
8−21
away record
12−16
L1
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
5−5
7.7
hits / game
7.8
0.86
home runs / game
1.34
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.49
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

DET · CHW · 65 days
Detroit TigersChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 5−5
Sep 7, 2025at DETCHW 6 − 4
Sep 6, 2025at DETDET 6 − 0
Sep 5, 2025at DETCHW 7 − 5
Aug 13, 2025at CHWDET 1 − 0
Aug 12, 2025at CHWCHW 9 − 6
Aug 11, 2025at CHWDET 2 − 1
Jun 5, 2025at CHWCHW 3 − 2
Jun 4, 2025at CHWDET 5 − 4
Jun 3, 2025at CHWCHW 8 − 1
Jun 2, 2025at CHWDET 13 − 1

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
May 28vs LAA1 − 7L
May 27vs LAA4 − 0W
May 26vs LAA6 − 10L
May 24at BAL4 − 1W
May 24at BAL3 − 5L
May 22at BAL4 − 7L
May 21vs CLE1 − 3L
May 20vs CLE2 − 3L
May 19vs CLE3 − 4L
May 18vs CLE2 − 8L

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 28vs MIN6 − 2W
May 27vs MIN15 − 2W
May 26vs MIN3 − 5L
May 25vs MIN3 − 1W
May 24at SF5 − 8L
May 23at SF3 − 10L
May 22at SF9 − 4W
May 20at SEA4 − 5L
May 19at SEA2 − 1W
May 18at SEA1 − 6L