bayesRatings

Mets at Mariners

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 3 · 2:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final NYM 7 – SEA 1
← MLB / Jun 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM1004100107140
SEA100000000162
Team box
NYM·SEA
14
hits
6
0
home runs
1
1
walks
3
10
strikeouts
9
137
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bo BichetteNYM4-4103
J.P. CrawfordSEA3-4111
Jared YoungNYM2-5001
A.J. EwingNYM3-5100
Luis TorrensNYM2-4200
MJ MelendezNYM1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Freddy Peralta (W)NYM6.06126
George Kirby (L)SEA4.09415

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +6
NYM +6
123456789
largest lead: SEA 0 · NYM 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 44%, SEA 56% · Updated Jun 3

Expected margin
SEA by 0.6
Expected score
SEA 4.4 – 3.8 NYM
Expected total
8.2
MetsThe matchupMariners
+125Our fair odds−125
3.8Expected runs4.4
−0.05Power rating+0.11
4.0Runs / game4.3
4.3Allowed / game3.7
7.5Hits / game7.8
1.00Home runs / game1.31
2.9Walks drawn / game3.5
26−35Season record33−29
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · SEA chance
Our model fair44.5%55.5%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+12544%+11446.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−12556%−14258.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.6
NYMNew York Mets+0.6our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.6 expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more40%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more30%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 5.94 ERA, 18 Kstarted
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 6.88 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·SEA
Jun 2 at SEA
last game
Jun 2 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
NYM·SEA
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.0
runs / game
4.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.7
26−35
season record
33−29
15−15
home record
19−15
11−20
away record
14−14
L2
streak
W8
4−6
last 10
8−2
7.5
hits / game
7.8
1.00
home runs / game
1.31
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.54
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

NYM · SEA · 70 days
New York MetsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 7−3
Jun 2at SEASEA 8 − 3
Jun 1at SEASEA 3 − 2
Aug 17, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 3
Aug 16, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 1
Aug 15, 2025at NYMSEA 11 − 9
Aug 11, 2024at SEASEA 12 − 1
Aug 10, 2024at SEASEA 4 − 0
Aug 9, 2024at SEASEA 6 − 0
Sep 3, 2023at NYMNYM 6 − 3
Sep 2, 2023at NYMSEA 8 − 7

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 2at SEA3 − 8L
Jun 1at SEA2 − 3L
May 31vs MIA10 − 1W
May 30vs MIA6 − 1W
May 29vs MIA9 − 7W
May 27vs CIN4 − 2W
May 26vs CIN2 − 7L
May 25vs CIN2 − 7L
May 24at MIA0 − 4L
May 23at MIA1 − 4L

SEA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W8
Jun 2vs NYM8 − 3W
Jun 1vs NYM3 − 2W
May 31vs ARI3 − 2W
May 30vs ARI5 − 1W
May 29vs ARI7 − 6W
May 27at ATH9 − 1W
May 26at ATH4 − 1W
May 25at ATH9 − 2W
May 24at KC6 − 8L
May 23at KC0 − 5L