bayesRatings

Reds at Mets

MLB · Tuesday, May 26 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final CIN 7 – NYM 2
← MLB / May 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN2003010107150
NYM000002000251
Team box
CIN·NYM
15
hits
5
0
home runs
1
5
walks
2
12
strikeouts
10
137
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Juan SotoNYM1-4112
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-5002
Tyler StephensonCIN2-4102
Elly De La CruzCIN2-5002
JJ BledayCIN3-5100
Sal StewartCIN2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase Burns (W)CIN5.14228
David Peterson (L)NYM5.011634

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +6
CIN +6
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · CIN 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 49%, NYM 51% · Updated May 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.6 – 4.5 CIN
Expected total
9.1
RedsThe matchupMets
+102Our fair odds−102
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.01Power rating−0.05
4.5Runs / game3.9
5.0Allowed / game4.3
7.6Hits / game7.6
1.28Home runs / game0.87
3.8Walks drawn / game2.9
28−25Season record22−32
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · NYM chance
Our model fair49.4%50.6%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10249%−12655.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−10251%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds+0.1our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more37%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more27%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 18 Kstarted
NYMDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.90 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·NYM
May 25 at NYM
last game
May 25 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
CIN·NYM
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.5
runs / game
3.9
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.3
28−25
season record
22−32
14−12
home record
11−14
14−13
away record
11−18
W2
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.6
hits / game
7.6
1.28
home runs / game
0.87
3.8
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.43
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

CIN · NYM · 62 days
Cincinnati RedsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
May 25at NYMCIN 7 − 2
Sep 7, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 3
Sep 5, 2025at CINNYM 5 − 4
Jul 20, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at NYMCIN 5 − 2
Jul 18, 2025at NYMCIN 8 − 4
Sep 8, 2024at NYMCIN 3 − 1
Sep 7, 2024at NYMNYM 4 − 0
Sep 6, 2024at NYMNYM 6 − 4

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 25at NYM7 − 2W
May 23vs STL7 − 6W
May 23vs STL1 − 8L
May 20at PHI9 − 4W
May 19at PHI4 − 1W
May 18at PHI4 − 5L
May 17at CLE3 − 10L
May 16at CLE4 − 7L
May 15at CLE7 − 6W
May 14vs WSH15 − 1W

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
May 25vs CIN2 − 7L
May 24at MIA0 − 4L
May 23at MIA1 − 4L
May 22at MIA1 − 2L
May 21at WSH2 − 1W
May 20at WSH4 − 8L
May 19at WSH6 − 9L
May 18at WSH16 − 7W
May 17vs NYY7 − 6W
May 16vs NYY6 − 3W