bayesRatings

Mets at Nationals

MLB · Thursday, May 21 · 3:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final NYM 2 – WSH 1
← MLB / May 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM002000000261
WSH000010000152
Team box
NYM·WSH
6
hits
5
0
home runs
0
2
walks
4
12
strikeouts
7
134
pitches thrown
128
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bo BichetteNYM1-4002
Brett BatyNYM2-4000
Keibert RuizWSH2-4100
Daylen LileWSH2-4000
Marcus SemienNYM1-4000
Luis TorrensNYM1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
David Peterson (W)NYM5.04133
Devin Williams (S)NYM1.01001
Cade Cavalli (L)WSH7.04219

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 0 · NYM 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 51%, WSH 49% · Updated May 21

Expected margin
NYM by 0.9
Expected score
NYM 6.0 – 5.0 WSH
Expected total
11.0
MetsThe matchupNationals
−105Our fair odds+105
6.0Expected runs5.0
−0.03Power rating−0.15
4.1Runs / game5.6
4.4Allowed / game5.9
7.9Hits / game8.5
0.92Home runs / game1.22
3.0Walks drawn / game3.7
21−28Season record25−25
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · WSH chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−10551%−11653.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+10549%−10350.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.9
NYMNew York Mets−0.9our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.0
Over11.0our total————
Under11.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.9 expected
New York Mets by 16 runs: <1%New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byWSH wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more45%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more36%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.556%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 10.54 ERA, 18 Kstarted
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·WSH
May 20 at WSH
last game
May 20 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
NYM·WSH
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.1
runs / game
5.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.9
21−28
season record
25−25
11−13
home record
10−15
10−15
away record
15−10
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
8.5
0.92
home runs / game
1.22
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.55
errors / game
0.92

Rating Trend

NYM · WSH · 57 days
New York MetsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 7−3
May 20at WSHWSH 8 − 4
May 19at WSHWSH 9 − 6
May 18at WSHNYM 16 − 7
Apr 30at NYMWSH 5 − 4
Apr 29at NYMWSH 14 − 2
Apr 28at NYMNYM 8 − 0
Sep 21, 2025at NYMWSH 3 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at NYMWSH 5 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Aug 21, 2025at WSHWSH 9 − 3

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
May 20at WSH4 − 8L
May 19at WSH6 − 9L
May 18at WSH16 − 7W
May 17vs NYY7 − 6W
May 16vs NYY6 − 3W
May 15vs NYY2 − 5L
May 14vs DET9 − 4W
May 13vs DET3 − 2W
May 12vs DET10 − 2W
May 10at ARI1 − 5L

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 20vs NYM8 − 4W
May 19vs NYM9 − 6W
May 18vs NYM7 − 16L
May 17vs BAL3 − 7L
May 16vs BAL13 − 3W
May 15vs BAL3 − 2W
May 14at CIN1 − 15L
May 13at CIN8 − 7W
May 12at CIN10 − 4W
May 10at MIA2 − 5L