bayesRatings

Mets at Nationals

MLB · Wednesday, May 20 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final NYM 4 – WSH 8
← MLB / May 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM011000020471
WSH310002028100
Team box
NYM·WSH
7
hits
10
2
home runs
2
1
walks
2
8
strikeouts
5
134
pitches thrown
116
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Juan SotoNYM2-4223
CJ AbramsWSH2-4213
Jacob YoungWSH2-4112
Keibert RuizWSH2-3001
Brett BatyNYM1-2001
Daylen LileWSH1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zac Thornton (L)NYM4.14423
Zack Littell (W)WSH5.05203
Andrew Alvarez (S)WSH4.02215

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: WSH 4 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 52%, WSH 48% · Updated May 20

Expected margin
NYM by 1.0
Expected score
NYM 6.0 – 5.0 WSH
Expected total
11.0
MetsThe matchupNationals
−107Our fair odds+107
6.0Expected runs5.0
−0.02Power rating−0.16
4.1Runs / game5.5
4.3Allowed / game5.9
7.9Hits / game8.4
0.90Home runs / game1.20
3.0Walks drawn / game3.8
21−27Season record24−25
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · WSH chance
Our model fair51.6%48.4%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−10752%−12655.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+10748%+10548.7%———
SpreadNYM by 1.0
NYMNew York Mets−1our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.0
Over11.0our total————
Under11.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 1.0 expected
New York Mets by 17 runs: <1%New York Mets by 16 runs: <1%New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byWSH wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more46%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more37%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.556%
Total over 11.541%
Total over 13.528%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMZac Thornton SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
WSHZack Littell SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·WSH
May 19 at WSH
last game
May 19 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
NYM·WSH
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
4.1
runs / game
5.5
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.9
21−27
season record
24−25
11−13
home record
9−15
10−14
away record
15−10
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.4
0.90
home runs / game
1.20
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.54
errors / game
0.94

Rating Trend

NYM · WSH · 56 days
New York MetsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 7−3
May 19at WSHWSH 9 − 6
May 18at WSHNYM 16 − 7
Apr 30at NYMWSH 5 − 4
Apr 29at NYMWSH 14 − 2
Apr 28at NYMNYM 8 − 0
Sep 21, 2025at NYMWSH 3 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at NYMWSH 5 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Aug 21, 2025at WSHWSH 9 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 4

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 19at WSH6 − 9L
May 18at WSH16 − 7W
May 17vs NYY7 − 6W
May 16vs NYY6 − 3W
May 15vs NYY2 − 5L
May 14vs DET9 − 4W
May 13vs DET3 − 2W
May 12vs DET10 − 2W
May 10at ARI1 − 5L
May 9at ARI1 − 2L

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 19vs NYM9 − 6W
May 18vs NYM7 − 16L
May 17vs BAL3 − 7L
May 16vs BAL13 − 3W
May 15vs BAL3 − 2W
May 14at CIN1 − 15L
May 13at CIN8 − 7W
May 12at CIN10 − 4W
May 10at MIA2 − 5L
May 9at MIA7 − 8L