bayesRatings

Mets at Nationals

MLB · Monday, May 18 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final NYM 16 – WSH 7
← MLB / May 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789101112THE
NYM010120100011016190
WSH0210001100117113
Team box
NYM·WSH
19
hits
11
2
home runs
0
4
walks
9
9
strikeouts
10
222
pitches thrown
197
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bo BichetteNYM3-6213
Brett BatyNYM2-6213
Carson BengeNYM3-6303
Juan SotoNYM2-5102
James WoodWSH3-6201
Marcus SemienNYM1-5102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Christian ScottNYM4.04335
Huascar Brazoban (W)NYM2.01021
Jake IrvinWSH4.06216
Paxton Schultz (L)WSH0.15610

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +10
NYM +10
123456789101112
largest lead: WSH 2 · NYM 10lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 51%, WSH 49% · Updated May 18

Expected margin
NYM by 0.9
Expected score
NYM 5.7 – 4.8 WSH
Expected total
10.5
MetsThe matchupNationals
−105Our fair odds+105
5.7Expected runs4.8
−0.02Power rating−0.15
3.8Runs / game5.4
4.2Allowed / game5.7
7.6Hits / game8.4
0.83Home runs / game1.21
3.1Walks drawn / game3.7
20−26Season record23−24
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · WSH chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−10551%−12655.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+10549%+10548.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.9
NYMNew York Mets−0.9our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.5
Over10.5our total————
Under10.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.9 expected
New York Mets by 16 runs: <1%New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byWSH wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more45%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more35%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.562%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.531%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, 19 Kstarted
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 8.31 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·WSH
May 17 vs NYY
last game
May 17 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
NYM·WSH
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
3.8
runs / game
5.4
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.7
20−26
season record
23−24
11−13
home record
8−14
9−13
away record
15−10
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
8.4
0.83
home runs / game
1.21
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.52
errors / game
0.91

Rating Trend

NYM · WSH · 54 days
New York MetsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 6−4
Apr 30at NYMWSH 5 − 4
Apr 29at NYMWSH 14 − 2
Apr 28at NYMNYM 8 − 0
Sep 21, 2025at NYMWSH 3 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at NYMWSH 5 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Aug 21, 2025at WSHWSH 9 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Aug 19, 2025at WSHNYM 8 − 1
Jun 12, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 3

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 17vs NYY7 − 6W
May 16vs NYY6 − 3W
May 15vs NYY2 − 5L
May 14vs DET9 − 4W
May 13vs DET3 − 2W
May 12vs DET10 − 2W
May 10at ARI1 − 5L
May 9at ARI1 − 2L
May 8at ARI3 − 1W
May 7at COL2 − 6L

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 17vs BAL3 − 7L
May 16vs BAL13 − 3W
May 15vs BAL3 − 2W
May 14at CIN1 − 15L
May 13at CIN8 − 7W
May 12at CIN10 − 4W
May 10at MIA2 − 5L
May 9at MIA7 − 8L
May 8at MIA3 − 2W
May 7vs MIN7 − 5W