bayesRatings

Mets at Nationals

MLB · Tuesday, May 19 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final NYM 6 – WSH 9
← MLB / May 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM3200001006102
WSH04320000990
Team box
NYM·WSH
10
hits
9
3
home runs
2
0
walks
2
9
strikeouts
6
128
pitches thrown
147
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bo BichetteNYM2-4224
James WoodWSH3-5214
Juan SotoNYM2-4211
Jose TenaWSH1-4211
Carson BengeNYM3-5200
Marcus SemienNYM1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nolan McLean (L)NYM5.28625
Foster Griffin (W)WSH5.08505
Richard Lovelady (S)WSH1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +5
NYM +5
123456789
largest lead: WSH 4 · NYM 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 52%, WSH 48% · Updated May 19

Expected margin
NYM by 1.0
Expected score
NYM 5.9 – 4.9 WSH
Expected total
10.8
MetsThe matchupNationals
−108Our fair odds+108
5.9Expected runs4.9
−0.01Power rating−0.18
4.1Runs / game5.5
4.2Allowed / game5.9
7.8Hits / game8.4
0.85Home runs / game1.19
3.1Walks drawn / game3.8
21−26Season record23−25
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · WSH chance
Our model fair52.0%48.0%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−10852%−14258.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+10848%+11945.7%———
SpreadNYM by 1.0
NYMNew York Mets−1our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.8
Over10.8our total————
Under10.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 1.0 expected
New York Mets by 16 runs: <1%New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byWSH wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more46%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more36%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.564%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.533%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 19 Kstarted
WSHFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·WSH
May 18 at WSH
last game
May 18 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
NYM·WSH
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
4.1
runs / game
5.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.9
21−26
season record
23−25
11−13
home record
8−15
10−13
away record
15−10
W3
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
8.4
0.85
home runs / game
1.19
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.51
errors / game
0.96

Rating Trend

NYM · WSH · 55 days
New York MetsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 6−4
May 18at WSHNYM 16 − 7
Apr 30at NYMWSH 5 − 4
Apr 29at NYMWSH 14 − 2
Apr 28at NYMNYM 8 − 0
Sep 21, 2025at NYMWSH 3 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at NYMWSH 5 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Aug 21, 2025at WSHWSH 9 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Aug 19, 2025at WSHNYM 8 − 1

NYM · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
May 18at WSH16 − 7W
May 17vs NYY7 − 6W
May 16vs NYY6 − 3W
May 15vs NYY2 − 5L
May 14vs DET9 − 4W
May 13vs DET3 − 2W
May 12vs DET10 − 2W
May 10at ARI1 − 5L
May 9at ARI1 − 2L
May 8at ARI3 − 1W

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 18vs NYM7 − 16L
May 17vs BAL3 − 7L
May 16vs BAL13 − 3W
May 15vs BAL3 − 2W
May 14at CIN1 − 15L
May 13at CIN8 − 7W
May 12at CIN10 − 4W
May 10at MIA2 − 5L
May 9at MIA7 − 8L
May 8at MIA3 − 2W