bayesRatings

Mets at Marlins

MLB · Friday, May 22 · 6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final NYM 1 – MIA 2
← MLB / May 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM100000000130
MIA01010000250
Team box
NYM·MIA
3
hits
5
1
home runs
0
1
walks
2
10
strikeouts
5
113
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Juan SotoNYM2-3111
Owen CaissieMIA1-2002
Esteury RuizMIA2-3200
Joe MackMIA1-3000
Javier SanojaMIA1-3000
A.J. EwingNYM1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tobias MyersNYM1.11110
Sean Manaea (L)NYM3.24103
Eury Perez (W)MIA6.12105
Pete Fairbanks (S)MIA1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 1 · NYM 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 50%, MIA 50% · Updated May 22

Expected margin
NYM by 0.5
Expected score
NYM 4.8 – 4.3 MIA
Expected total
9.1
MetsThe matchupMarlins
−101Our fair odds+101
4.8Expected runs4.3
−0.02Power rating−0.11
4.1Runs / game4.3
4.3Allowed / game4.7
7.8Hits / game8.1
0.90Home runs / game0.82
3.0Walks drawn / game3.3
22−28Season record22−29
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · MIA chance
Our model fair50.3%49.7%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−10150%−10751.8%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10150%−11653.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.5
NYMNew York Mets−0.5our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.5 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byMIA wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more41%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more31%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMTobias Myers RP · last 3 starts: 9.0 IP, 7.00 ERA, 10 Kstarted
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 7.31 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·MIA
May 21 at WSH
last game
May 21 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
NYM·MIA
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.1
runs / game
4.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.7
22−28
season record
22−29
11−13
home record
15−15
11−15
away record
7−14
W1
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
8.1
0.90
home runs / game
0.82
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.56
errors / game
0.69

Rating Trend

NYM · MIA · 58 days
New York MetsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Sep 28, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at MIANYM 5 − 0
Sep 26, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 2
Aug 31, 2025at NYMMIA 5 − 1
Aug 30, 2025at NYMMIA 11 − 8
Aug 29, 2025at NYMNYM 19 − 9
Aug 28, 2025at NYMMIA 7 − 4
Apr 9, 2025at NYMMIA 5 − 0
Apr 8, 2025at NYMNYM 10 − 5
Apr 7, 2025at NYMNYM 2 − 0

NYM · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
May 21at WSH2 − 1W
May 20at WSH4 − 8L
May 19at WSH6 − 9L
May 18at WSH16 − 7W
May 17vs NYY7 − 6W
May 16vs NYY6 − 3W
May 15vs NYY2 − 5L
May 14vs DET9 − 4W
May 13vs DET3 − 2W
May 12vs DET10 − 2W

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
May 21vs ATL3 − 9L
May 20vs ATL1 − 9L
May 19vs ATL4 − 8L
May 18vs ATL12 − 0W
May 17at TB3 − 6L
May 16at TB10 − 5W
May 15at TB2 − 7L
May 14at MIN1 − 9L
May 13at MIN9 − 5W
May 12at MIN0 − 3L