bayesRatings

Braves at Marlins

MLB · Monday, May 18 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final ATL 0 – MIA 12
← MLB / May 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000000000041
MIA010560001290
Team box
ATL·MIA
4
hits
9
0
home runs
2
3
walks
7
9
strikeouts
8
171
pitches thrown
144
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Javier SanojaMIA1-4114
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-4212
Joe MackMIA1-3204
Liam HicksMIA2-4002
Matt OlsonATL1-3000
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
JR Ritchie (L)ATL4.05514
Max Meyer (W)MIA6.03026

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +12
ATL +12
123456789
largest lead: MIA 12 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 55%, MIA 45% · Updated May 18

Expected margin
ATL by 1.2
Expected score
ATL 5.0 – 3.9 MIA
Expected total
8.9
BravesThe matchupMarlins
−123Our fair odds+123
5.0Expected runs3.9
+0.20Power rating−0.09
5.3Runs / game4.3
3.2Allowed / game4.6
9.1Hits / game8.2
1.40Home runs / game0.77
3.0Walks drawn / game3.3
32−15Season record21−26
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair55.2%44.8%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−12355%−10751.8%———
MIAMiami Marlins+12345%−11252.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.2
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.2our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.2 expected
Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byMIA wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more47%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more36%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLJR Ritchie SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 10 Kstarted
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·MIA
May 17 vs BOS
last game
May 17 at TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
ATL·MIA
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
5.3
runs / game
4.3
3.2
runs allowed / game
4.6
32−15
season record
21−26
16−8
home record
14−12
16−7
away record
7−14
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
9.1
hits / game
8.2
1.40
home runs / game
0.77
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.40
errors / game
0.72

Rating Trend

ATL · MIA · 54 days
Atlanta BravesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 3−7
Apr 15at ATLATL 6 − 3
Apr 14at ATLATL 6 − 5
Apr 13at ATLMIA 10 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at MIAATL 12 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at MIAATL 11 − 2
Aug 25, 2025at MIAMIA 2 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 1
Aug 9, 2025at ATLATL 8 − 6
Aug 9, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at ATLMIA 5 − 1

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 17vs BOS8 − 1W
May 16vs BOS2 − 3L
May 15vs BOS3 − 2W
May 14vs CHC0 − 2L
May 13vs CHC4 − 1W
May 12vs CHC5 − 2W
May 10at LAD7 − 2W
May 9at LAD7 − 2W
May 8at LAD1 − 3L
May 6at SEA1 − 3L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 17at TB3 − 6L
May 16at TB10 − 5W
May 15at TB2 − 7L
May 14at MIN1 − 9L
May 13at MIN9 − 5W
May 12at MIN0 − 3L
May 10vs WSH5 − 2W
May 9vs WSH8 − 7W
May 8vs WSH2 − 3L
May 7vs BAL4 − 3W