bayesRatings

Braves at Marlins

MLB · Thursday, May 21 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final ATL 9 – MIA 3
← MLB / May 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL2100210219130
MIA001100100360
Team box
ATL·MIA
13
hits
6
3
home runs
3
1
walks
2
9
strikeouts
13
131
pitches thrown
164
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael Harris IIATL2-5223
Kyle StowersMIA2-4222
Mike YastrzemskiATL3-3212
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL2-3102
Owen CaissieMIA1-2111
Mauricio DubonATL1-1002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer Strider (W)ATL6.14329
Sandy Alcantara (L)MIA6.09603

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +6
ATL +6
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · ATL 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 56%, MIA 44% · Updated May 21

Expected margin
ATL by 1.2
Expected score
ATL 5.1 – 3.9 MIA
Expected total
9.1
BravesThe matchupMarlins
−125Our fair odds+125
5.1Expected runs3.9
+0.21Power rating−0.10
5.3Runs / game4.4
3.4Allowed / game4.6
9.0Hits / game8.1
1.38Home runs / game0.78
3.1Walks drawn / game3.4
34−16Season record22−28
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair55.5%44.5%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−12556%−14258.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+12544%+11945.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.2
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.2our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.2 expected
Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byMIA wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more47%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more36%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLSpencer Strider SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 18 Kstarted
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·MIA
May 20 at MIA
last game
May 20 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
ATL·MIA
+0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
5.3
runs / game
4.4
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.6
34−16
season record
22−28
16−8
home record
15−14
18−8
away record
7−14
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
4−6
9.0
hits / game
8.1
1.38
home runs / game
0.78
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.42
errors / game
0.70

Rating Trend

ATL · MIA · 57 days
Atlanta BravesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 3−7
May 20at MIAATL 9 − 1
May 19at MIAATL 8 − 4
May 18at MIAMIA 12 − 0
Apr 15at ATLATL 6 − 3
Apr 14at ATLATL 6 − 5
Apr 13at ATLMIA 10 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at MIAATL 12 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at MIAATL 11 − 2
Aug 25, 2025at MIAMIA 2 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 1

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
May 20at MIA9 − 1W
May 19at MIA8 − 4W
May 18at MIA0 − 12L
May 17vs BOS8 − 1W
May 16vs BOS2 − 3L
May 15vs BOS3 − 2W
May 14vs CHC0 − 2L
May 13vs CHC4 − 1W
May 12vs CHC5 − 2W
May 10at LAD7 − 2W

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 20vs ATL1 − 9L
May 19vs ATL4 − 8L
May 18vs ATL12 − 0W
May 17at TB3 − 6L
May 16at TB10 − 5W
May 15at TB2 − 7L
May 14at MIN1 − 9L
May 13at MIN9 − 5W
May 12at MIN0 − 3L
May 10vs WSH5 − 2W