bayesRatings

Braves at Marlins

MLB · Tuesday, May 19 · 3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final ATL 8 – MIA 4
← MLB / May 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL2000110318101
MIA301000000480
Team box
ATL·MIA
10
hits
8
1
home runs
1
8
walks
4
11
strikeouts
13
150
pitches thrown
190
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael Harris IIATL2-5112
Matt OlsonATL2-3003
Mauricio DubonATL3-5101
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-5111
Otto LopezMIA3-4200
Kyle StowersMIA1-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Martin PerezATL5.054210
Dylan Lee (W)ATL1.12002
Braxton GarrettMIA3.03232
Calvin Faucher (L)MIA0.22332

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +4
ATL +4
123456789
largest lead: MIA 2 · ATL 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 54%, MIA 46% · Updated May 19

Expected margin
ATL by 1.0
Expected score
ATL 5.0 – 4.0 MIA
Expected total
9.0
BravesThe matchupMarlins
−117Our fair odds+117
5.0Expected runs4.0
+0.18Power rating−0.07
5.2Runs / game4.4
3.4Allowed / game4.5
9.0Hits / game8.2
1.38Home runs / game0.79
3.0Walks drawn / game3.4
32−16Season record22−26
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshi58.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11754%−14258.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+11746%+11446.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.0
ATLAtlanta Braves−1our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.0 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 16%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byMIA wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more45%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more35%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 1.08 ERA, 14 Kstarted
MIABraxton Garrett SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 7.50 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·MIA
May 18 at MIA
last game
May 18 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
ATL·MIA
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
5.2
runs / game
4.4
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.5
32−16
season record
22−26
16−8
home record
15−12
16−8
away record
7−14
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
9.0
hits / game
8.2
1.38
home runs / game
0.79
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.42
errors / game
0.71

Rating Trend

ATL · MIA · 55 days
Atlanta BravesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 3−7
May 18at MIAMIA 12 − 0
Apr 15at ATLATL 6 − 3
Apr 14at ATLATL 6 − 5
Apr 13at ATLMIA 10 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at MIAATL 12 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at MIAATL 11 − 2
Aug 25, 2025at MIAMIA 2 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 1
Aug 9, 2025at ATLATL 8 − 6
Aug 9, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 1

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 18at MIA0 − 12L
May 17vs BOS8 − 1W
May 16vs BOS2 − 3L
May 15vs BOS3 − 2W
May 14vs CHC0 − 2L
May 13vs CHC4 − 1W
May 12vs CHC5 − 2W
May 10at LAD7 − 2W
May 9at LAD7 − 2W
May 8at LAD1 − 3L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 18vs ATL12 − 0W
May 17at TB3 − 6L
May 16at TB10 − 5W
May 15at TB2 − 7L
May 14at MIN1 − 9L
May 13at MIN9 − 5W
May 12at MIN0 − 3L
May 10vs WSH5 − 2W
May 9vs WSH8 − 7W
May 8vs WSH2 − 3L