bayesRatings

Reds at Phillies

MLB · Tuesday, May 19 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final CIN 4 – PHI 1
← MLB / May 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000200200470
PHI001000000131
Team box
CIN·PHI
7
hits
3
0
home runs
1
5
walks
1
8
strikeouts
14
134
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trea TurnerPHI1-4111
JJ BledayCIN1-3001
Blake DunnCIN2-4100
Elly De La CruzCIN1-3101
Tyler StephensonCIN1-1100
Dane MyersCIN0-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase Burns (W)CIN6.03109
Tony Santillan (S)CIN1.00002
Jesus Luzardo (L)PHI6.05225

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 1 · CIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 44%, PHI 56% · Updated May 19

Expected margin
PHI by 0.7
Expected score
PHI 4.8 – 4.1 CIN
Expected total
8.9
RedsThe matchupPhillies
+127Our fair odds−127
4.1Expected runs4.8
−0.04Power rating+0.11
4.3Runs / game4.2
5.1Allowed / game4.6
7.5Hits / game8.0
1.29Home runs / game1.23
3.9Walks drawn / game3.0
24−24Season record25−23
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+12744%+11945.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12756%−14258.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.7
CINCincinnati Reds+0.7our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.7 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more42%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more32%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.47 ERA, 16 Kstarted
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·PHI
May 18 at PHI
last game
May 18 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
CIN·PHI
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.3
runs / game
4.2
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.6
24−24
season record
25−23
13−11
home record
13−12
11−13
away record
12−11
L3
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
8−2
7.5
hits / game
8.0
1.29
home runs / game
1.23
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.0
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.42
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

CIN · PHI · 55 days
Cincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 5−5
May 18at PHIPHI 5 − 4
Aug 13, 2025at CINCIN 8 − 0
Aug 12, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at CINPHI 4 − 1
Jul 6, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 1
Jul 5, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 1
Jul 4, 2025at PHICIN 9 − 6
Apr 25, 2024at CINPHI 5 − 0
Apr 24, 2024at CINCIN 7 − 4
Apr 23, 2024at CINCIN 8 − 1

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 18at PHI4 − 5L
May 17at CLE3 − 10L
May 16at CLE4 − 7L
May 15at CLE7 − 6W
May 14vs WSH15 − 1W
May 13vs WSH7 − 8L
May 12vs WSH4 − 10L
May 10vs HOU5 − 0W
May 9vs HOU3 − 1W
May 8vs HOU0 − 10L

PHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
May 18vs CIN5 − 4W
May 17at PIT6 − 0W
May 16at PIT6 − 0W
May 15at PIT11 − 9W
May 14at BOS3 − 1W
May 13at BOS1 − 3L
May 12at BOS2 − 1W
May 10vs COL6 − 0W
May 9vs COL9 − 3W
May 8vs COL7 − 9L