bayesRatings

Reds at Mets

MLB · Monday, May 25 · 3:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final CIN 7 – NYM 2
← MLB / May 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN021400000760
NYM000001100290
Team box
CIN·NYM
6
hits
9
2
home runs
1
4
walks
0
15
strikeouts
12
152
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler StephensonCIN1-4112
Marcus SemienNYM2-4111
Spencer SteerCIN1-4103
JJ BledayCIN1-4111
Bo BichetteNYM3-4000
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick Lodolo (W)CIN6.06107
Nolan McLean (L)NYM3.15726

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +7
CIN +7
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · CIN 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 49%, NYM 51% · Updated May 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.6 – 4.5 CIN
Expected total
9.1
RedsThe matchupMets
+106Our fair odds−106
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.03Power rating−0.04
4.4Runs / game3.9
5.1Allowed / game4.3
7.6Hits / game7.6
1.27Home runs / game0.87
3.8Walks drawn / game3.0
27−25Season record22−31
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · NYM chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10649%+11446.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−10651%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds+0.2our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more38%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more28%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 11 Kstarted
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 4.82 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·NYM
May 23 vs STL
last game
May 24 at MIA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
CIN·NYM
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.4
runs / game
3.9
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.3
27−25
season record
22−31
14−12
home record
11−13
13−13
away record
11−18
W1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.6
hits / game
7.6
1.27
home runs / game
0.87
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.0
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.44
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

CIN · NYM · 61 days
Cincinnati RedsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
Sep 7, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 3
Sep 5, 2025at CINNYM 5 − 4
Jul 20, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at NYMCIN 5 − 2
Jul 18, 2025at NYMCIN 8 − 4
Sep 8, 2024at NYMCIN 3 − 1
Sep 7, 2024at NYMNYM 4 − 0
Sep 6, 2024at NYMNYM 6 − 4
Apr 7, 2024at CINNYM 3 − 1

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 23vs STL7 − 6W
May 23vs STL1 − 8L
May 20at PHI9 − 4W
May 19at PHI4 − 1W
May 18at PHI4 − 5L
May 17at CLE3 − 10L
May 16at CLE4 − 7L
May 15at CLE7 − 6W
May 14vs WSH15 − 1W
May 13vs WSH7 − 8L

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 24at MIA0 − 4L
May 23at MIA1 − 4L
May 22at MIA1 − 2L
May 21at WSH2 − 1W
May 20at WSH4 − 8L
May 19at WSH6 − 9L
May 18at WSH16 − 7W
May 17vs NYY7 − 6W
May 16vs NYY6 − 3W
May 15vs NYY2 − 5L