bayesRatings

Cardinals at Reds

MLB · Saturday, May 23 · 12:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final STL 8 – CIN 1
← MLB / May 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL0021002128120
CIN010000000121
Team box
STL·CIN
12
hits
2
2
home runs
1
8
walks
3
7
strikeouts
6
134
pitches thrown
176
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jordan WalkerSTL1-5113
Bryan TorresSTL2-4112
Nathaniel LoweCIN1-4111
Ivan HerreraSTL2-3201
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4001
Victor Scott IISTL3-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andre Pallante (W)STL6.02113
Chris Paddack (L)CIN5.07335

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +7
STL +7
123456789
largest lead: CIN 1 · STL 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 49%, CIN 51% · Updated May 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.6 – 4.5 STL
Expected total
9.2
CardinalsThe matchupReds
+106Our fair odds−106
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.00Power rating−0.02
4.5Runs / game4.4
4.6Allowed / game5.0
8.1Hits / game7.7
1.14Home runs / game1.26
3.4Walks drawn / game3.8
28−21Season record26−24
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10649%−11252.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−10651%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.1our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 13%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more37%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more27%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.58 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CINChris Paddack SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 8.49 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·CIN
May 21 vs PIT
last game
May 20 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
2 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
STL·CIN
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.5
runs / game
4.4
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.0
28−21
season record
26−24
13−13
home record
13−11
15−8
away record
13−13
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
7.7
1.14
home runs / game
1.26
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.47
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

STL · CIN · 59 days
St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Sep 17, 2025at STLCIN 6 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 0
Sep 15, 2025at STLCIN 11 − 6
Aug 31, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at CINSTL 4 − 2
Aug 29, 2025at CINSTL 7 − 5
Jun 22, 2025at STLCIN 4 − 1
Jun 21, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 5
Jun 20, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 1
May 1, 2025at CINCIN 9 − 1

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 21vs PIT2 − 6L
May 20vs PIT0 − 7L
May 19vs PIT9 − 6W
May 17vs KC0 − 2L
May 16vs KC4 − 2W
May 15vs KC5 − 4W
May 14at ATH5 − 4W
May 13at ATH2 − 6L
May 12at ATH6 − 4W
May 10at SD2 − 3L

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 20at PHI9 − 4W
May 19at PHI4 − 1W
May 18at PHI4 − 5L
May 17at CLE3 − 10L
May 16at CLE4 − 7L
May 15at CLE7 − 6W
May 14vs WSH15 − 1W
May 13vs WSH7 − 8L
May 12vs WSH4 − 10L
May 10vs HOU5 − 0W