bayesRatings

Reds at Phillies

MLB · Wednesday, May 20 · 12:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final CIN 9 – PHI 4
← MLB / May 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN0301012029152
PHI100003000461
Team box
CIN·PHI
15
hits
6
1
home runs
2
0
walks
3
10
strikeouts
7
146
pitches thrown
160
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sal StewartCIN4-5312
Nathaniel LoweCIN2-5103
Edmundo SosaPHI1-3112
P.J. HigginsCIN2-4002
Alec BohmPHI1-4111
Dane MyersCIN1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew Abbott (W)CIN5.13133
Aaron Nola (L)PHI5.08405

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +5
CIN +5
123456789
largest lead: PHI 1 · CIN 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 45%, PHI 55% · Updated May 20

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.7 – 4.1 CIN
Expected total
8.8
RedsThe matchupPhillies
+123Our fair odds−123
4.1Expected runs4.7
−0.03Power rating+0.10
4.3Runs / game4.2
5.0Allowed / game4.6
7.5Hits / game7.9
1.27Home runs / game1.22
3.9Walks drawn / game3.0
25−24Season record25−24
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.8%55.2%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+12345%+12943.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12355%−15460.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
CINCincinnati Reds+0.6our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more41%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more31%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 0.54 ERA, 11 Kstarted
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.65 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·PHI
May 19 at PHI
last game
May 19 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
CIN·PHI
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.3
runs / game
4.2
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.6
25−24
season record
25−24
13−11
home record
13−13
12−13
away record
12−11
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
8−2
7.5
hits / game
7.9
1.27
home runs / game
1.22
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.0
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.41
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

CIN · PHI · 56 days
Cincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 5−5
May 19at PHICIN 4 − 1
May 18at PHIPHI 5 − 4
Aug 13, 2025at CINCIN 8 − 0
Aug 12, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at CINPHI 4 − 1
Jul 6, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 1
Jul 5, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 1
Jul 4, 2025at PHICIN 9 − 6
Apr 25, 2024at CINPHI 5 − 0
Apr 24, 2024at CINCIN 7 − 4

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 19at PHI4 − 1W
May 18at PHI4 − 5L
May 17at CLE3 − 10L
May 16at CLE4 − 7L
May 15at CLE7 − 6W
May 14vs WSH15 − 1W
May 13vs WSH7 − 8L
May 12vs WSH4 − 10L
May 10vs HOU5 − 0W
May 9vs HOU3 − 1W

PHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
May 19vs CIN1 − 4L
May 18vs CIN5 − 4W
May 17at PIT6 − 0W
May 16at PIT6 − 0W
May 15at PIT11 − 9W
May 14at BOS3 − 1W
May 13at BOS1 − 3L
May 12at BOS2 − 1W
May 10vs COL6 − 0W
May 9vs COL9 − 3W