bayesRatings

Cardinals at Reds

MLB · Saturday, May 23 · 6:15 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final STL 6 – CIN 7
← MLB / May 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
STL01000300200690
CIN000051000017100
Team box
STL·CIN
9
hits
10
2
home runs
2
5
walks
5
6
strikeouts
16
173
pitches thrown
168
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jordan WalkerSTL3-4214
Elly De La CruzCIN2-4113
Nathaniel LoweCIN2-4112
Jose FerminSTL1-1111
Blake DunnCIN2-6101
Dane MyersCIN1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle LeahySTL5.07528
Riley O'Brien (L)STL1.10012
Chase PettyCIN5.06411
Pierce Johnson (W)CIN2.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +4
STL +4
1234567891011
largest lead: CIN 4 · STL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 49%, CIN 51% · Updated May 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.6 – 4.5 STL
Expected total
9.2
CardinalsThe matchupReds
+106Our fair odds−106
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.00Power rating−0.02
4.5Runs / game4.4
4.6Allowed / game5.0
8.1Hits / game7.7
1.14Home runs / game1.26
3.4Walks drawn / game3.8
28−21Season record26−24
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10649%−10751.8%———
CINCincinnati Reds−10651%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.1our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 13%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more37%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more27%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 1.10 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CINChase Petty RP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 13.09 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·CIN
May 23 at CIN
last game
May 23 vs STL
same day
days of rest
same day
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
STL·CIN
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.5
runs / game
4.4
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.0
28−21
season record
26−24
13−13
home record
13−11
15−8
away record
13−13
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
7.7
1.14
home runs / game
1.26
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.47
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

STL · CIN · 59 days
St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Sep 17, 2025at STLCIN 6 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 0
Sep 15, 2025at STLCIN 11 − 6
Aug 31, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at CINSTL 4 − 2
Aug 29, 2025at CINSTL 7 − 5
Jun 22, 2025at STLCIN 4 − 1
Jun 21, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 5
Jun 20, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 1
May 1, 2025at CINCIN 9 − 1

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 21vs PIT2 − 6L
May 20vs PIT0 − 7L
May 19vs PIT9 − 6W
May 17vs KC0 − 2L
May 16vs KC4 − 2W
May 15vs KC5 − 4W
May 14at ATH5 − 4W
May 13at ATH2 − 6L
May 12at ATH6 − 4W
May 10at SD2 − 3L

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 20at PHI9 − 4W
May 19at PHI4 − 1W
May 18at PHI4 − 5L
May 17at CLE3 − 10L
May 16at CLE4 − 7L
May 15at CLE7 − 6W
May 14vs WSH15 − 1W
May 13vs WSH7 − 8L
May 12vs WSH4 − 10L
May 10vs HOU5 − 0W