bayesRatings

Mets at Marlins

MLB · Saturday, May 23 · 3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final NYM 1 – MIA 4
← MLB / May 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM000000001130
MIA02101000481
Team box
NYM·MIA
3
hits
8
0
home runs
2
3
walks
2
11
strikeouts
9
120
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Liam HicksMIA2-4222
Owen CaissieMIA1-3002
Mark VientosNYM2-3001
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-4000
Otto LopezMIA1-4000
Connor NorbyMIA1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Freddy Peralta (L)NYM7.08429
Max Meyer (W)MIA7.01038

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: MIA 4 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 50%, MIA 50% · Updated May 23

Expected margin
NYM by 0.5
Expected score
NYM 4.8 – 4.2 MIA
Expected total
9.0
MetsThe matchupMarlins
+100Our fair odds−100
4.8Expected runs4.2
−0.03Power rating−0.10
4.0Runs / game4.3
4.3Allowed / game4.6
7.7Hits / game8.0
0.90Home runs / game0.81
2.9Walks drawn / game3.3
22−29Season record23−29
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · MIA chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+10050%−10751.8%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10050%−11653.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.5
NYMNew York Mets−0.5our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.5 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byMIA wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more41%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more31%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·MIA
May 22 at MIA
last game
May 22 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
NYM·MIA
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.0
runs / game
4.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.6
22−29
season record
23−29
11−13
home record
16−15
11−16
away record
7−14
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
8.0
0.90
home runs / game
0.81
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.55
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

NYM · MIA · 59 days
New York MetsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 7−3
May 22at MIAMIA 2 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at MIANYM 5 − 0
Sep 26, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 2
Aug 31, 2025at NYMMIA 5 − 1
Aug 30, 2025at NYMMIA 11 − 8
Aug 29, 2025at NYMNYM 19 − 9
Aug 28, 2025at NYMMIA 7 − 4
Apr 9, 2025at NYMMIA 5 − 0
Apr 8, 2025at NYMNYM 10 − 5

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 22at MIA1 − 2L
May 21at WSH2 − 1W
May 20at WSH4 − 8L
May 19at WSH6 − 9L
May 18at WSH16 − 7W
May 17vs NYY7 − 6W
May 16vs NYY6 − 3W
May 15vs NYY2 − 5L
May 14vs DET9 − 4W
May 13vs DET3 − 2W

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 22vs NYM2 − 1W
May 21vs ATL3 − 9L
May 20vs ATL1 − 9L
May 19vs ATL4 − 8L
May 18vs ATL12 − 0W
May 17at TB3 − 6L
May 16at TB10 − 5W
May 15at TB2 − 7L
May 14at MIN1 − 9L
May 13at MIN9 − 5W