bayesRatings

Reds at Mets

MLB · Wednesday, May 27 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final CIN 2 – NYM 4
← MLB / May 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN001001000281
NYM11001010481
Team box
CIN·NYM
8
hits
8
0
home runs
2
9
walks
2
8
strikeouts
5
146
pitches thrown
177
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Juan SotoNYM2-3111
Carson BengeNYM2-4002
Eric WagamanNYM1-2111
Blake DunnCIN3-6000
Nathaniel LoweCIN1-3001
Sal StewartCIN1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew Abbott (L)CIN6.06314
Huascar BrazobanNYM1.01012
Jonah Tong (W)NYM3.23041
Devin Williams (S)NYM1.00033

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 2 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 50%, NYM 50% · Updated May 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.5 – 4.5 CIN
Expected total
9.1
RedsThe matchupMets
+100Our fair odds+100
4.5Expected runs4.5
−0.01Power rating−0.06
4.5Runs / game3.8
4.9Allowed / game4.4
7.7Hits / game7.6
1.26Home runs / game0.87
3.9Walks drawn / game2.9
29−25Season record22−33
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · NYM chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10050%+10149.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+10050%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati RedsPKour margin————
NYMNew York MetsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more36%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more27%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 1.10 ERA, 10 Kstarted
NYMHuascar Brazoban RP · last 3 starts: 3.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 2 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·NYM
May 26 at NYM
last game
May 26 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
CIN·NYM
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.5
runs / game
3.8
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
29−25
season record
22−33
14−12
home record
11−15
15−13
away record
11−18
W3
streak
L5
6−4
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
7.6
1.26
home runs / game
0.87
3.9
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.43
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

CIN · NYM · 63 days
Cincinnati RedsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 3−7
May 26at NYMCIN 7 − 2
May 25at NYMCIN 7 − 2
Sep 7, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at CINCIN 6 − 3
Sep 5, 2025at CINNYM 5 − 4
Jul 20, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at NYMCIN 5 − 2
Jul 18, 2025at NYMCIN 8 − 4
Sep 8, 2024at NYMCIN 3 − 1
Sep 7, 2024at NYMNYM 4 − 0

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
May 26at NYM7 − 2W
May 25at NYM7 − 2W
May 23vs STL7 − 6W
May 23vs STL1 − 8L
May 20at PHI9 − 4W
May 19at PHI4 − 1W
May 18at PHI4 − 5L
May 17at CLE3 − 10L
May 16at CLE4 − 7L
May 15at CLE7 − 6W

NYM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
May 26vs CIN2 − 7L
May 25vs CIN2 − 7L
May 24at MIA0 − 4L
May 23at MIA1 − 4L
May 22at MIA1 − 2L
May 21at WSH2 − 1W
May 20at WSH4 − 8L
May 19at WSH6 − 9L
May 18at WSH16 − 7W
May 17vs NYY7 − 6W